BENGALURU: There is a lot at stake for India when they take on Lebanon in the semifinal of the SAFF Championship at the Sree Kanteerava Stadium here on Saturday. At first glance, this is merely a semifinal in a regional tournament India wins more often than not. But the winner of this game will earn a lot more than just a place in the final on Tuesday.
In the FIFA rankings that were released on Thursday, India sits at the 100th position with 1204.9 points. Lebanon are right behind in the 102nd spot with 1201.74 points. This means that in Asia, India are the eighteenth-ranked team while Lebanon are nineteenth. Win on Saturday and India will maintain their spot. Lose and Lebanon will overtake them when FIFA publishes the next set of rankings on July 20.
The latter statistic is extremely important with the draw for the 2026 World Cup qualifiers — which will also be the qualifying tournament for the 2027 Asian Cup — slated to happen on July 27. The draw will see 36 teams drawn into nine groups of four. The nine top-ranked teams in Asia will be drawn from pot one while teams nine to eighteen will be in Pot 2. This is where India’s ranking in Asia becomes significant. As the eighteenth-ranked team, they will be the last name in Pot 2.
Being the last name in Pot 2 instead of the first in Pot 3 can make all the difference to the campaign as India found out in the 2022 World Cup qualifiers. In the draw for that campaign, India were 20th in Asia and hence in Pot 3. They ended up drawing Asian Champions Qatar and Oman from the first two pots and never stood a chance of progressing to the next round. However, this time, India could avoid teams like China, Bahrain, Uzbekistan and Vietnam by just maintaining status quo.
India has never progressed from the initial group stages of the joint AFC World Cup and Asian Cup qualifiers. Doing so would provide an incredible fillip to Indian football. Not only would being part of 18 teams vying for eight World Cup spots bring a lot of spotlight onto the sport in the country, it would also guarantee them qualification to the next edition of the Asian Cup.
The first step to all that, however, would be beating Lebanon on Saturday. And India will go into that encounter with a disadvantage. Thanks to his second red card in as many games, India coach Igor Stimac has been banned from the touchline for the rest of the SAFF Championships. Also missing will be defensive mainstay Sandesh Jhingan, who was shown his second yellow card of the tournament against Kuwait. Lebanon, meanwhile, have won every single one of their games here, and come into the match with much more confidence than when they lost to India in the final of the Intercontinental Cup earlier this month.
The Blue Tigers will once again be looking up to Sunil Chhetri, who has scored in every game of the tournament so far. The Kanteerava has been witness to so many special performances from the Indian captain over the years. If he can produce another one on Saturday, it will be up there on the list in terms of sheer significance.