The ever-flowing River Godavari seems to be changing its course. With just two days to go for simultaneous elections to the Lok Sabha and the Assembly in the divided State of Andhra Pradesh, the shift in the course of the river has caused a breach in the fort of the Telugu Desam presided over by three-time Chief Minister Nara Chandrababu Naidu.
This has given more than just hope to YS Jagan Mohan Reddy, waiting to occupy the throne for 10 years since the death of his father, YS Rajasekhara Reddy, in 2009. Whether the river swells further and gives him a landslide in terms of votes is still doubtful but he seems to be on the cusp of his best ever chance to form the government in Andhra Pradesh.
This is the picture that emerged after a TNIE team criss-crossed the twin Godavari districts (East and West), separated by the river which enters AP from Telangana after the temple town of Bhadrachalam. For the uninitiated, the two districts, known as the Paddy bowl, are also the most economically-rich in the entire country, and long considered an indicator for any election outcome in Andhra Pradesh.
Back in 2014, when polls took place soon after the division of AP, Jagan believed it was merely a question of going through the formalities before taking an oath. He was high on morale and funds.
Naidu was despondent and financially not so sound. Yet, doubts in the minds of the people about the future of the state if it was placed in the hands of a young politician like Jagan, Naidu getting the support of BJP and the strong network of TDP helped turn the tide.
The margin was less (just five lakh votes separated the two parties overall though in terms of seats it has yielded 40 more for the TDP-BJP combine).
Five years down the line, both leaders are on an even keel in terms of morale and funds while Jagan has also managed to put in place a fairly strong network. Both sides are aggressive in using/misusing social media, making it a no-holds-barred fight in every respect in a state that has 25 LS and 175 Assembly constituencies.
Days before the 2014 elections, as we toured the State, the refrain was that AP required a seasoned administrator like Naidu as it needs to rebuild itself following the division. This time, the common refrain is “why not give the boy (Jagan) a chance at least once.”
You get to hear it from a 25-year-old Nagender, who runs a small restaurant on the outskirts of Rajahmundry or Ratnam, a member of the self-help group and therefore, a beneficiary of the Rs 10,000 that was paid in three installments to an estimated 98 lakh such women -- the last cheque credited on Monday, close to the D-day on April 11.
In doing so, the Chief Minister sought to replicate what his Telangana counterpart K Chandrasekhara Rao, whom Naidu revels in calling his “junior,” did.
But, Rao started paying the assistance months before the elections while Naidu did it close to the polling day.
It may still work for Naidu but whether it will pay him the same kind of dividend that Rao got is unsure as Kumar, a teacher in a government school says.
“Despite all that he did, change is needed.”
Thanks to the months-long “padayatra”, Jagan has managed to overcome the image he had in 2014 of a brat politician who represents only certain sections of the society, not to speak of the criminal/corruption cases he is saddled with.
On the contrary, unlike his earlier terms as Chief Minister of the undivided Andhra Pradesh when he was perceived as strong and efficient, Naidu is confronted with heavy anti-incumbency against his legislators many of whom acquired the reputation of “looters.”
Examples of MLAs seeking commissions for every request from even ordinary citizens including assistance from the CM’s Relief Fund for medical treatments are galore.
In West Godavari, people openly talk of ministers and MLAs giving away “permits” for sand mining, otherwise free, for Rs 1,000 per lorry.
Unless one carries the slip, bearing the lorry number, duly signed by a ruling party leader, police wouldn’t allow the vehicle anywhere near the mining zones.
In respect of welfare schemes, the power to decide the beneficiaries was granted to what were called
“Janmabhoomi committees” comprising TDP functionaries with the official machinery having no say in the matter. That they were ultimately disbanded following an uproar tells the story.
It is not as if Naidu is unaware of the ground realities.
“Remember me when you cast the vote. If my legislators committed mistakes, I shall punish them,” he told a gathering at a public meeting the other day. Ramesh, an auto-driver in Kakinada port town, is still caustic though.
“Naidu may have given a huge ice block in Secretariat. But, by the time it reaches people like us, it is reduced to a few drops of water.”
On the busy Palakole-Bhimavaram road, flush with plantations on either side, Venkateswara Rao, part of a 10-member team hired to peel coconuts before they are transported to wholesale markets across the State and Hyderabad, comes out as a better analyst than the ones on TV channels.
According to him, as the crop loan waiver up to Rs 1.5 lakh was done in four installments instead of at one go, the amount remitted by the government mostly covered the accumulated interest while the principal had to be still paid by the farmers.
The manager of a leading bank in Tadepalligudem confirms it. Of the 650 crop loan accounts he has, 100 turned bad while in the case of others, the ryots themselves paid up the principal over and above the assistance received from the government.
A fair assessment would be that Naidu, a strategist and an astute politician with loads of experience, has managed to stay in contention despite the negatives that people talk about.
He has successfully laid the blame for the lack of accelerated progress at the doorstep of the BJP, tried to whip up emotion by accusing that his bête noir, KCR, and Jagan have joined hands and finally, allegedly played a role in persuading film star Pawan Kalyan, younger sibling of Chiranjeevi, to enter the fray to bring about a split in Opposition vote.
Before Pawan got into the political act, many believed it would be an easy victory for Jagan. Once it happened, the contest turned almost equal between Naidu and Jagan with Jana Sena expected to take away a chunk of votes. But as polls draw close, Pawan appears to have lost the momentum, which is again tilting the balance in favour of YSR’s son.
A comparable election would be 2009 when the Congress-led by YSR, Naidu and Chiranjeevi were in the fray. The film star polled as much as 18% votes though he won just 18 seats but considerably damaged the Telugu Desam.
Chiranjeevi won the maximum seats in Godavari districts and his party was either in the first or second spot in almost all segments, pushing the TDP to the third spot. Pawan doesn’t appear to have succeeded in building it up the same way. Most predictions give him a single digit in terms of voting percentage and a best case scenario of 3-4 seats with Pawan himself staring at defeat in Bhimavaram in West Godavari.
What helped YSR retain power in 2009 by a wafer-thin margin was the fact that a good 60 percentage of Kapus, the community that Chiranjeevi represents, voted for the star thus preventing this from going to the Telugu Desam. Volatile and with swerving loyalties, Kapus are unlikely to back Pawan the same way, thus minimizing the damage to Jagan, the community having moved away from TDP since 2014 when it backed Naidu.
It is still a close call in terms of percentage of votes. Despite the mood to offer Jagan a chance, a majority of women, who are members of self-help groups, as also pensioners, are keeping cards close to their chest – a dent here by Jagan could clinch the deal for him.
The poor have been more loyal to Jagan even in the past but this time, he seems to have mobilized greater support among lower/upper middle classes, compared to 2014.
Then, Jagan drew a blank in the 15 seats in West Godavari and managed just five out of 19 in East Godavari. If the river changes track, Jagan shall still romp home, assuming the rest of the state favours TDP and YSR Congress the same way as in 2014.
Irrespective of who wins, it is no political play with people playing a meaningful role.
Politics in Andhra has been well and truly corporatized. Over the last two days, every voter has been given Rs 1,000 by each of the two main parties with the cost going up to Rs 1,500-2000 per voter in some constituencies. Overall, an estimated Rs 10,000 crore is the lure money.
That gives us a sense of what is at stake.