BENGALURU: Polling for the three Lok Sabha and two assembly seats in Karnataka is now over and parties, workers and voters alike have to sit tight till November 6 when the results will be announced. While Ballari, Mandya, Shivamogga and Ramanagara constituencies followed convention in registering lower voter turnout in a bypoll than a general election, Jamkhandi stood out by registering a polling percentage even higher than the May 2018 elections. Analysts believe that the numbers point to a tough and intense fight in the seat.
If the heavy campaigning by BJP on on side and JD(S)-Congress combine on the other was anything to go by in the Jamkhandi seat, and the sympathy factor working in favour of both candidates, November 6 is likely to be a nail-biter.
Mandya, with just 53.93% voter turnout as opposed to 71.47% that it registered in 2014, held a mirror to the infighting between JD(S) and Congress workers at the grassroots level despite BJP has no significant presence there. “A drop of close to 20% polling in a seat where BJP has no significant presence shows that that alliance may not have been able to get their voters together because of infighting. This, however, does not mean the BJP will benefit,” said political scientist Sandeep Shastry. The BJP, while acknowledging behind closed doors that the seat is a sure shot win for JD(S), is hoping to improve its vote share.
Ballari, which has become a battle of prestige between Sriramulu and Water Resources minister D K Shivakumar who are fighting a proxy war with their candidates, recorded 7% lesser polling than in 2014. The number, analysts believe, may not negatively impact the incumbent — in this case, the BJP. Even as Sriramulu told the media in Ballari on Saturday that his party will win, albeit a thin margin, experts believe that it could be status quo since other factors seem to favour BJP.
Ramanagara was a lost cause for the BJP the moment its candidate withdrew from the contest and announced his decision to join Congress. While L Chandrashekhar’s name appeared next to the Lotus symbol on the EVMs, JD(S) is hoping to win with a landslide margin in an election that wasn’t. The constituency that had polled 82.98% in May this year, recorded 71.88% voter turnout on Saturday.
Shivamogga, analysts believe, is perhaps another case of hardcore Congress supporters refusing to come out and vote. With 61.05% voter turnout, a sharp decline from 72.36% in 2014, BJP’s B Y Raghavendra is still confident of a victory. “Our party leaders and workers have been working hard for a month now. I am confident of a victory in every booth,” said Raghavendra. The JD(S)-Congress common candidate too exudes equal confidence, albeit for other reasons. “Voters want to come out of the BJP clutches, from their brand of politics like Hindutva. People have hopes in the coalition government,” claimed Madhu Bangarappa.
Analysts, however, believe that the drop in polling percentage could reflect on the coalition’s inability to galvanise support. “It only means JD(S) hasn’t managed to galvanise enough support to vote out BJP. A lot of hardcore supporters may have refused to vote,” Dr Shastry observed.