BENGALURU: If the bonhomie between top leaders of Congress and JD(S) at Saturday’s joint rallies in the state is anything to go by, the coalition partners seem to go the whole hog to send a right message to their party workers. But, that is not enough as transfer of votes will be crucial for the coalition candidates, especially for the JD(S) in Mandya, Hassan and Tumkur.
JD(S) will be looking for help from former chief minister Siddaramaiah, who apart from helping the JD(S) to get the support from disgruntled Congress leaders, can also ensure the support from the AHINDA (Kannada acronym for minorities, backward classes and dalits), which are in significant numbers in all the three constituencies. Siddaramaiah’s support can play a decisive role in Tumkur. JD(S) supremo HD Deve Gowda is pitted against a strong Lingayat leader - GS Basavaraju.
Though there is some resistance from local Vokkaliga leaders as Gowda is from Hassan, he may still manage to get their support, while BJP candidate is backed by Lingayats. In that case, AHINDA voters, who constitute around 45 per cent of the voters in the constituency will be the deciding factor. While minorities largely back Congress-JD(S) combine, backward classes and dalit votes get split.
For Gowda, the former CM’s support becomes all the more important as local Kuruba leaders have decided to oppose the JD(S) supremo. Siddaramaiah can help him get their support. Political analyst Prof Muzaffar Assadi said as an AHINDA leader, the former CM can play a key role in Tumkur. In Mandya and Hassan too, he can help tilt the balance in favour of JD(S) candidates Nikhil and Prajwal. Both of them had met Siddaramaiah recently and sought his blessings.
Apart from ensuring transfer of AHINDA votes, Siddaramaiah can also help control the damage the disgruntled leaders from Congress can do. Hassan and Mandya are predominantly Vokkaliga dominated constituencies with nearly 50 per cent AHINDA voters.In Mandya, local leaders have refused to fall in line even after several warnings by the state leaders, while in Hassan, the party unit is in total disarray after A Manju left Congress to contest as a BJP candidate.
Siddaramaiah has been campaigning for JD(S) candidates in Mandya, Hassan and Tumakuru. However, Siddaramaiah’s task is not that easy either. Gowda and his grandsons are fighting the LS battle to win the elections, while Siddaramaiah’s position too is dicey. He has to reassert his leadership and regain control over Mysuru and JD(S) support will be crucial for that.