KOCHI: In budgetary terms, what flood-hit Kerala may be looking at is a non-plan expenditure of Rs 8,500 crore. Because the state government, in its estimation of damage to houses, is unlikely to cover cost of replacing white goods, plumbing items, external and internal painting, furniture, kitchen utensils and clothes.
If one were to look at the geographic profile of the flood-hit areas, most of Aluva, Chengannur, Chalakkudy, Ranni, Kozhenchery, Tiruvalla and Aranmula would be home to the middle-to-higher income bracket who would not think twice before replacing their flood-damaged goods. Not so would be the case in upper and lower Kuttanad, Eloor, parts of Paravur, Adimali, Cheruthoni, Murikkassery and Panamaram.
Even if the demographic split, based on the income bracket, puts 1,25,000 under those who prefer to repair and not replace damaged goods, the cost would at least be Rs 2 lakh, adding up to Rs 2,500 crore. And the remaining 75,000 would incur not less than Rs 8 lakh on an average, thus aggregating an expenditure of Rs 6,000 crore.
The Kerala Government, while pegging the cost of rebuilding the flood-hit state at slightly less than Rs 20,000 crore, which is its initial assessment of damage as submitted to the Prime Minister last Saturday, had drawn up a list. This included total loss or damage to houses, institutional or business loss, crop loss and loss by way of damage to infrastructure - mainly to about 10,000 km of roads and a few dozen bridges.
The government has promised to pay Rs 10 lakh to those who have lost their houses/ land and Rs 4 lakh in case of fully damaged houses. But it would be a moot point how many claimants would actually figure under these categories. Surely about two lakh would be roughly the number of houses that got submerged, if one were to accept that about 8 lakh people are now in various relief camps across the state, which is the conservative figure.There are many who claim this number to be close to 10 lakh or one million.
An average family in Kerala would house between four and five members, which would put the the number of such houses at 1.75 lakh. But this does not include tens of thousands of households which got submerged where the occupants opted not to join relief camps and a few thousand instances where the occupants preferred to stay back in their flooded houses.
Jose Sebastian, Associate Professor at Gulati Institute of Finance & Taxation, feels middle and upper income households will ‘straightaway’ replace the white goods, including refrigerators, TVs and washing machines, besides their kitchenware, sofas/ settees, cots and mattresses.
A big chunk of money will go into repairing houses
“With Onam offers coming, people, depending on their income levels, will replace their TVs, washing machines and refrigerators. An LED TV is priced at Rs 30,000. Middle and upper middle class will use the Onam offer for sure,” says Jose Sebastian.
Sebastian is certain a large chunk of money will also go into repairing houses. “Up to Rs 3 lakh may be incurred to repair the houses alone,” he says, adding that the lower and middle-class household may first focus on repairing their houses before going for the replacement of their white goods. The expenditure on replacing damaged household items could go up to Rs 10 lakh,” he adds.
Meanwhile, giving a glimpse of what may be in store for the state government towards getting even partially damaged houses repaired, Rathish V A, general secretary of Structural Engineers Association, Kerala (SEA-K), says it would be fair to assume 80 per cent of the houses affected in the floods are not built as per the desired structural design.
“Even if we are talking about 500 sq ft houses, the cost of repair would be at least Rs 2 lakh per house,” he says.Of course, not too many houses in Kerala are 500 sq ft in size.