In a few hours from now, there would be a clear picture on who is going to form the Government at the Centre and in Odisha. The actual results of General Elections 2019 may or may not turn out according to exit polls projections. But in any case, 2019 elections will be a defining moment for the State. It will gain a prominent place in National politics irrespective of the way the results swing. Odisha has been a state with high stakes for both the BJD and BJP these elections. The results will have a tremendous impact both at the State and Centre. SN Agragami explores the likely scenarios to emerge from Elections 2019 and how politics will pan out thereafter.
Scenario 1
(Exit polls hold ground)
BJP makes huge dent in Lok Sabha seats
BJD retains the Assembly comfortably
The much-talked-about split voting ‘Upare phoola, Tale sankha’ (Lotus for Parliament, Conch for Assembly) factor has held true. Voters have voted as they had stated, for Prime Minister Narendra Modi at Centre and Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik in State. Naveen Patnaik though will not be pleased. The result greatly diminishes BJD’s role at the Centre. During campaigning and post-elections Naveen had stopped just short of proclaiming himself as the kingmaker and stated BJD will play a decisive role in Government formation at the Centre. If NDA crosses the majority or BJP makes the numbers on its own, Naveen Patnaik will be looking at a 2014-2019 rerun and the continuance of the relationship that it had with the Centre in the last five years – a hidden ally.
Scenario 2 (Likely)
BJD sweeps Lok Sabha seats
BJD storms back to Assembly
Proving every exit poll prediction, pre-poll noise about anti-incumbency, the surge of BJP and Modi wave wrong, Naveen will be both the king and the kingmaker. A record fifth term in the State and powerful role at the Centre is all that Naveen Patnaik could have asked for. The BJP had considered Odisha its new harvest yard to compensate the losses suffered in other parts. If the State doesn’t give returns, it will have to seek refuge in Naveen as the party and NDA may fall short of the numbers. And, Naveen will play accordingly, to extract his pound of flesh in return of the favour. Conversely too, if BJP and NDA fall behind and UPA and the united Opposition have the upper hand in a hung Parliament situation, Naveen will again be like gold dust. He had much earlier considered the possibility of a hung Parliament and shed his stance of equidistance from Congress and BJP saying, “BJD will support any party that commits to work for Odisha’s interests”.
Scenario 3 (Less likely)
BJP bags more LS seats than BJD
BJP makes tremendous gains in Assembly (40-50 seats) with BJD managing around (75-85 seats) and Congress (20-25 seats)
A scenario that Naveen Patnaik and BJD would be dreading the most. Even though Naveen Patnaik will be in a position to form the State Government for a record fifth time, he will be extremely vulnerable. The BJP returning to power at the Centre and gaining a position of strength in the State at the same time will not bring good tidings for the regional chieftain. A belligerent Modi-Shah combine will not give an easy time to the BJD in the State, if the actions of the party in Madhya Pradesh and developments in Karnataka, hours after the exit poll projections were released, are any indication.
Scenario 4 (Distant possibility)
BJP bags more seats in Lok Sabha
Hung Assembly in State with BJD and BJP both within touching range
A caught between the devil and deep sea situation for Naveen Patnaik. A post-poll alliance in order, the Naveen Patnaik will have to join hands with either the BJP and Congress to secure his fifth term. BJD and BJP have been old partners, having successfully run coalition Government for two terms from 2004-2009. The BJP though had played a submissive second fiddle to Naveen Patnaik-led BJD. However, the BJP under Modi-Shah is a different entity altogether and 2019 will be a completely different era. A strong BJP will be assertive and thus a problematic proposition for Naveen. Having shed the equidistance policy, Naveen may also not be averse to choose Congress as its partner as the party won’t be in a position to dictate terms and be eager to be back in power, that has evaded it since the last two decades. Then also, a strong BJP opposition will not be good news for the BJD. The Government will always be on tenterhooks - a situation not experienced by Naveen Patnaik in the last four terms.