CHENNAI: Political analysts are divided on what by-elections to the 20 assembly constituencies would have to offer. Asked if the by-polls would change the political climate in Tamil Nadu, Raveenthran Thuraisamy said, “Bypolls are not the parameter to assess the voting pattern of the whole of Tamil Nadu. The ruling party will throw its full weight behind candidates to win the polls as it is their do-or-die moment.”
On whether the anti-incumbency mood against the present government would have a negative impact on the winning prospects of the AIADMK, Thuraisamy said, “The anti-incumbency votes would be divided. Part of such votes would go to DMK and the rest would go to disqualified MLAs. So, the ruling party has to depend on its traditional vote bank as well as the welfare schemes. But all these permutations and combinations may work out only if the by-elections are held in time.”
Thuraisamy added that the bypoll results would show that the AMMK candidates would take away a considerable anti-incumbency votes that would have otherwise gone to the DMK. The DMK and AMMK together would make a strong alliance but as that will not happen, the advantage goes to the ruling party.
Political analyst Tharasu Shyam is sceptical if the by-elections will even be held in time. “Most probably, the by-elections will be held along with the Lok Sabha polls. The prospect of winning for the ruling party is very low this time while DMK and AMMK will share the seats among them. Even if the AMMK candidates win a few seats and finish as runners up in the rest, it will give a big advantage to TTV Dhinakaran in taking over the AIADMK. Further, Dhinakaran may get the cooker symbol from the Election Commission for the by-polls and the Lok Sabha polls, which will help him retain that symbol for five years,” he said.
“It will be an opportunity for DMK president MK Stalin to establish that the defeat faced by DMK in RK Nagar by-election was only a blip,” Shyam added, pointing out that the DMK’s ally, Congress, had already demanded it be allotted the same seats, of the 20, that it contested in 2016. “If there is a give and take, the DMK can register a significant victory in the by-elections,” he said.
AMMK to benefit?
By-election would likely see the AMMK candidates would take away a considerable percentage of anti-incumbency votes that would have otherwise gone to the DMK