The analysis can put any seasoned psephologist to shame. Every constituency, every candidate in the fray for the December 4 Delhi Assembly elections have been studied, graded and tagged with a price. The verdict? No matter what the opinion polls scream about voters swinging between electing the BJP and the Aam Admi Party (AAP), the money is on the Congress winning a fourth term.
Cautious after the IPL fiasco, bookies operating from the heart of the national capital are not using cell-phones or the Internet. Rather they are relying on reams of data collected by dedicated teams of foot soldiers who have gone from area to area to gauge the public mood and help firm up the odds. It has been painstaking work, collating the data and carrying out an analysis on the chances of every party. But then again the stakes are high with more than Rs. 250 crore riding on the results.
The odds for Delhi election as decided by the eight or nine big daddies of betting are based on parameters like relative strength of political parties, previous records of candidates, winnability factor, anti-incumbency and the mood at rallies. Now, the odds are as low as Rs. 2 for every Rs. 1 invested on Congress, Rs.2.30 per rupee for BJP and as much as Rs. 3.75 per rupee for AAP.
Explaining how it works, a bookie on condition of anonymity told The Sunday Standard that the lowest returns promised meant the party was a clear favourite and likely to win the election. For example, punters placing Rs.1 lakh on Congress will get Rs. 2 lakh if the party wins in Delhi but if they place the same amount on AAP, they stand to gain Rs. 3.75 lakh.
“Unlike cricket matches, the odds based on pre-poll assessment and seats analysis will remain constant. No bet is accepted over the phone and to ensure flexibility and transparency, a copy of our analysis has been circulated among punters,” he said.
The racket has analysed party performance constituency-wise to finalise the odds. According to the syndicate, the Congress party would win 19 seats, had an edge in five seats and would be part of a close contest in nine seats.