NEW DELHI: While Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav has become the uncontested boss of the Samajwadi Party (SP) and working to stitch an alliance with the Congress, the BJP is drawing comfort from an internal assessment, which positions itself as the winner in Lucknow when the verdict comes out on March 11.
The internal assessment factored in a united ruling SP-Congress alliance. It gives the BJP a clean sweep in the western region, which accounts for nearly 90 seats. It also claims that the party would have an upper hand in the eastern (Poorvanchal) parts (over 150 seats), which were swept by Akhilesh in the 2012 polls.
The BJP, however, has to brace for a duel in the Central parts and Awadh region (133 seats), with the report stating that it would be locked in triangular contests with equally formidable foes in the SP and the Mayawati-led BSP. In the Bundelkhand region, BJP is anticipating a direct contest with the BSP on about 30 seats, and hopes to bag half of the constituencies.
“The BJP will sweep the western parts. The region had been a saffron laboratory for over three years, and the BJP had tested the fruits of the labour of the RSS sweating out there in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. The scale of the BJP victory will only rise, as the party is unstoppable with demography driving politics in the region,” said a Union minister in the Narendra Modi Cabinet and senior BJP leader.
A BJP internal assessment in Uttar Pradesh claims that the BJP has an upper hand in the eastern parts of the state. A Union minister said the competitive bid of the BSP and the SP to polarise Muslims in their favours would work to the advantage of the BJP. The BJP is counting on the SP and BSP to “trigger counter polarisation of Hindi votes against overt and aggressive minority appeasement”.
“The utility of the Congress in the alliance is on account of the upper caste vote base of the party in Poorvanchal, which accounts for over 150 seats. Since Akhilesh-Mulayam-Shivpal Yadavs are now together, the CM’s earlier strategy to ward off misgovernance, and lack of law and order on the shoulders of uncles will not work, and will antagonise the upper caste to strip the Congress with any handle to repeat the Bihar verdict,” he added.
The BJP admits that the CM is strongly holding out in the Central and Awadh parts of the state, which account for close to 150 seats. “Our assessment states that the poor are backing the PM, which may tilt the balance if we could slog it out well on the ground with workers pouring their energy,” he said.
Even while the Jats in the western parts are angry with the BJP, the party is drawing comforts from the fact that the caste has no option but to back the saffron outfit. The BJP has also assessed the impact of the end of the SP family feud along with the possibility of a tie-up with the Congress.