NEW DELHI: The agrarian distress appears to be turning into a ticking time bomb for the Modi government. The spurt in the number of farmer suicides from 2014 onwards has been a disquieting reminder. And now comes the realisation that the real income of farmers suffered a decline between 2011 and 2016. According to a finding, 53 per cent farmers would be below poverty line if they are only dependent on farm income.
This is in the backdrop of the Modi government’s aim of doubling farmers’ income by 2023. NITI Ayog member Ramesh Chand has put together all these facts in a report on the agrarian distress, which notes that the income earned from agriculture was not adequate to keep as many as 53 per cent farm households out of poverty if land is less than 0.63 hectare.
On the basis of “Situation Assessment Survey of Agricultural Households in 2013”, Chand has sought to estimate farmers’ income. “According to SAS for 2012-13, the average annual income of a farm household from farm as well as non-farm sources was `77,112, which included 60 per cent income from farm sources. In absolute terms, cultivation generated annual income of `36, 938 and livestock provided `9,176 per agricultural household,” he said.
That the Modi government
is aiming to double farmers’ income in seven years by 2022-23 seems a daunting task. “The tempo of growth in farm income got a setback after 2011-12. Output of crop sector witnessed small decline in 2012-13, which was followed by below average Monsoon. Consequently, growth rate in value added in agriculture decelerated to 1.6 per cent during 2011-12 to 2015-16, which led to the decline of the real income of farmers during 2011-12 to 2015-16,” added the study.
The study noted that there had been a decline of about 10 lakh hectares under cultivation, “as agricultural land has been diverted to non-agricultural uses since 2004-05”. The government had pinned its hopes of doubling farmers’ income on shifting farmers to non-farm sector.
But a study cited by Chand noted that employment diversification is slow due to lack of skill and education, concentration of industrial units away from rural habitations and limited capacity of non-farm sector to ensure productive employment to incoming workers.
Incidentally, findings of the study correlate with the spurt in suicides by farmers, which exceeded 2,000 in 2015. Chand advocates a seven-pronged approach to improve the situation, which covers crop productivity and livestock value addition among others.
According to him, such an approach can achieve a potential income growth of 75.1 per cent in seven years and 107.5 per cent in 10 years. He adds that agriculture would need to grow at 10.50 per cent each year to realise target of the PM, which is in contrast to the average growth of just 0.5 per cent in 2014-16 and 4.3 per cent in 2016-17.