NEW DELHI: The abrupt postponement of the 2+2 dialogue between the foreign and defence ministers of India and the US has sparked speculation about possible hiccups in ties.
While both sides insist that cancellation does not in any way reflect adversely on the growing ties between the two nations, the fact remains Donald Trump’s erratic and unpredictable domestic, foreign and economic policies do impact India in various ways.
External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj and Defence Minister Nirmala Sitharaman were set to travel to Washington for the high level dialogue with their US counterparts, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Secretary of Defence James Mattis on July 6.
But on June 27, on a day when visiting US envoy to the UN Nikki Haley was extolling the way the relationship was progressing, Pompeo called Swaraj late in the evening seeking a postponement for “unavoidable” reasons. After much speculation, it was revealed that Pompeo was travelling to North Korea to meet a senior official that day.
ON June 27, when US envoy to the UN Nikki Haley waxed eloquent about India-US ties in New Delhi, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo called up External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj seeking a postponement of the 2+2 Dialogue scheduled for July 6.
Both sides insisted that the meeting of Swaraj and Defence Minister Nirmala Sitharaman with Pompeo and US Defence Secretary James Mattis was rescheduled due to “unavoidable issues” and did not reflect on the relationship in any way.
The dialogue agreed upon in June 2017 was earlier scheduled for April, but postponed because of the resignation of then Secretary of State Rex Tillerson. The Financial Times quoted US officials as saying “Pompeo had cancelled a planned meeting with his Indian counterpart, due in Washington on July 6, in order to fly to Pyongyang..(for) “follow-on” talks with an unnamed senior North Korean official.”
Though both sides insist that the ties have never been better, there are some uncomfortable differences over foreign and economic policies.
While the US has marked Iran, Russia and China as threats, India has fairly good relations with the first two nations, and is trying to improve relations with China. Modi has held informal summits with Xi and Putin in an attempt to ramp up and revive the relationships.
Washington’s decision to impose sanctions under the Countering America’s Adversaries through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) on Iran and Russia impacts India’s plan to buy oil and weapons from them. And, though India has started buying American weapons, the high-end ones are stuck because of New Delhi’s reluctance to sign on to pacts such as the Communications, Compatibility, Security Agreement.
India’s unwillingness to join US-led Freedom of Navigation Operations in the South China Sea or take part in joint patrols despite its repeated calls for ensuring free and fair rights and open sea lanes for trade and commerce is another issue.
And then there is trade. New Delhi responded to fresh American tariffs on steel and aluminium by raising the effective duty on $240 million worth US imports. The increasing restrictions on work and immigration visas are causing heartburn.
At a more fundamental level, the increasingly insular policies being adopted by Trump are in sharp contrast to India’s increasing engagement with multilateral forums. While the US has pulled out of the North American Free Trade Agreement, the Paris Climate Change Accord, the Iran Nuclear Deal, and is even making noises about NATO member states not pulling their weight, India has joined the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, ramped up involvement with the Commonwealth of Nations and is aggressively wooing regional outfits such as the ASEAN.
But while admitting there were “some differences in perception and approach.” a senior Indian official said none of these were “deal breakers” or irreconcilable. “We are already in talks over waivers for India from CAATSA clauses and the trade issues, and Washington has publicly admitted that it understands our compulsions. I am sure that the 2+2 dialogue will be held soon, but we are also holding several parallel high-level dialogues with Washington aimed at reconciling these gaps without compromising our national security.”
Echoing the US line that bilateral ties have “never been better,” he said “commonalities like democracy, freedom of rights, and a strong belief in human values far outweigh whatever differences we might have.”
“On the face, the Indo-US relations given the general goodwill may seem easy to progress. However, diplomacy under the present administration is certainly a major challenge,” says Rahul Bhonsle of Security Risk Asia. “However, it would be incredulous to believe that July 6 is sacrosanct for talks with North Korea as some sources would have us believe to lead to postponing a prefixed Dialogue.”
Issues plaguing India-US ties
■ Divergence of views on Russia, China, Iran
■ US sanctions on Russia, Iran to hit India’s arms and oil imports
■ Stricter US visa regimes
■ Divergence of views on South China Sea
■ New trade tariffs to hit business