NEW DELHI: After the Northeast high, the Hindi heartland low earlier this week has prompted many opponents of the Bharatiya Janata Party to call it the beginning of the end of BJP rule at the Centre.
Following the BJP’s humiliating defeat in the Gorakhpur and Phulpur Lok Sabha byelections, the Congress, Trinamool, Samajwadi Party and many others were quick to predict the saffron party’s defeat in the next Lok Sabha elections.
Even the Shiv Sena, the BJP’s long time ally, has said in its mouthpiece Saamna that the BJP’s tally in the Lok Sabha elections in 2019 would come down by 100-110 seats. The BJP had won 282 in 2014.
The doomsday predictions may be a bit early as there is still a year to go for the next general elections but the bypoll results have certainly spurred the BJP to go back to the drawing board.
Party president Amit Shah has already called a meeting of key leaders from Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan for a strategy session, besides calling senior functionaries from Andhra Pradesh. The concern in the BJP may not be out of place. To understand why it is necessary to take a look at the 2014 election results.
Riding on the N
arendra Modi wave, the BJP won 237 of the 282 seats it bagged in the elections from only the Hindi belt and western India (See table 1). This is more than 85 % of the party’s final seat tally. The party won 26 in southern and east India and another 11 in the Northeast and Jammu and Kashmir (See tables 2 and 3).
BJP leaders admit that it will be tough to repeat its 2014 performance in the Hindi belt, particularly UP, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Gujarat. Even in the other Hindi-speaking States such as Bihar, Jharkhand, Delhi and Haryana, the party is not in the best of shape. The Samajwadi Party’s (SP) ‘alliance’ with the Bahujan Samajwadi Party for the Gorakhpur and Phulpur byelections has added a new worrying dimension for the BJP.
“In 2014, Muslim votes were split in UP between the SP and BSP. If 18 per cent Muslims, 12 per cent Yadav and 22 per cent OBCs flock together behind the SP-BSP combine, then the BJP may be heading to a completely unchartered territory in the state,” a top ranking BJP leader said.
Not just UP, the BJP is also beginning to accept the challenge of the SP and BSP joining hands with the Congress in Madhya Pradesh, particularly in the Gondwana and Bundelkhand regions of the state.
“The BSP has a strong following in the Gondwana and Bundelkhand regions of MP while the SP has pockets of influence elsewhere,” a senior BJP functionary said.
In Rajasthan, the BSP is known to have a strong support base among Dalits. With the BJP already sensing anti-incumbency against Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje, sources in the party said a grand alliance of Opposition parties could spell trouble.
But all is not lost for the BJP. The strongest factor in its favour is Modi, whose political acumen even his opponents acknowledge.
When it comes to Modi versus Rahul Gandhi, the former wins hawnds down, said a BJP leader.
“We still have 10 months for the Lok Sabha elections and the choice before the people is Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Congress president Rahul Gandhi. It’s, therefore, too early to come to any conclusion,” the BJP leader said.
Besides, the party is eyeing gains in southern and east India to offset some of the possible losses in the Hindi heartland. Soon after the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, BJP chief Shah had identified 125 Lok Sabha seats as part of the party’s expansion plans to offset any losses in its stronghold States.
“The BJP has been working intensely in Odisha (20), Telangana (17), Karnataka (28), the Northeast (25), Kerala (20), and West Bengal (42), which together account for 162 Lok Sabha seats. The BJP is eyeing at least 60 Lok Sabha seats from these states, which could offset the losses elsewhere,” a senior BJP functionary said. Game on for 2019.