NEW DELHI: In 2015, Bihar had exposed BJP’s weakness against a united Opposition. But the saffron party is not losing sleep over the recent efforts by Opposition parties to agree on closing ranks and fighting unitedly in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls to stop the BJP’s victory march. Even though BJP chief Amit Shah has spelt out that the party would be bracing for a ‘BJP vs all’ contest in 2019, party strategists believe all such talks about a united Opposition taking on the party are more of a theory and not feasible due to practical compulsions.
Except Uttar Pradesh, where the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party could come together along with the Congress, there is hardly any scope for a BJP vs Opposition contest. The BJP strategists count at least 332 Lok Sabha seats where the party has influence and there is least scope for changes in the way the political battles have been fought in the recent years. If they are taken along with UP, these states add up to 387 Lok Sabha seats where the BJP has realistic chances of doing well on the basis of the past records.
“The BJP’s traditional catchment areas already see direct contests. Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Chhattishgarh, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Jharkhand have seen almost a direct contest against the Congress or an alliance led by the Opposition outfit. Bihar has settled into a state with a contest between two alliances — one led by the BJP-JD(U) and the other led by the RJD. They together have 167 Lok Sabha seats,” said a senior BJP functionary.
On the other hand, BJP
strategists count a bouquet of states where the prospect of a direct contest is not possible because of the presence of competitive regional politics and slim chances of reconciliations between rival parties. “Maharashtra, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, North-east, West Bengal and Delhi are the states whose fate of a multi-cornered contest is almost cast in stone. Can the Congress and Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) join hands with the Shiv Sena in Maharashtra?
Will Navin Patnaik-led BJD do business with the Congress in Odisha? Can K C Rao in Telangana join hands with the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and the Congress? Could the TDP and the YSR Congress come together in Andhra Pradesh? There hardly exists such a possibility, given the well-entrenched regional identity of some of the political outfits,” opined another BJP leader.
The states (only where the BJP has a footprint) where closing of ranks by non-BJP outfits isn’t seen in the realm of possibilities together account for 165 Lok Sabha seats.Further, the BJP strategists maintain that politicians who have for years nursed their constituencies may not be willing to relinquish their claims if their parties allot the seats to their alliance partners.
“In Uttar Pradesh, where the SP-BSP closed ranks in the Lok Sabha bypolls, could see too many independent candidates with a strong following among the people contesting elections. Such a large number of independent candidates could well rob the semblance of a one-on-one contest against the BJP,” added the BJP strategist.