Most of Africa, South, and Central Asia are vulnerable to the projected negative impacts of climate change, says a recent study conducted by CGIAR Climate Change Agriculture and Food Security (CGIAR CCAFS). The study shows that climate change could affect the productivity of rice, wheat, and maize by 2050, with the situation getting even worse by 2080.
Many research studies have been carried out to quantify projected climate impacts on agriculture at diverse spatial scales, using various climate and crop models. A recent study by CGIAR CCAFS has comprehensively summarized this large body of work done over the last forty years for the most consumed cereals globally (wheat, rice and maize), with important takeaways for food security.
The authors analysed more than 150 studies published since the 1980s, using the meta-analysis technique. The results highlight high impacts of climate change on the productivity of rice, wheat, and maize, with respective area-weighted global losses reaching up to -12 per cent, -15 per cent and -20 per cent by the 2080s.
The study also identified global hotspots of potential food insecurity after adaptation on crop yield, by analysing projected future food demand for the 2050s along with the national food supply. Consequently, most of Africa, South, and Central Asia, along with temperate countries in South America andScandinavia, were found to be vulnerable to food insecurity and the projected negative impacts of climate change.
The lead author Pramod Aggarwal further elaborates, “These regions have immense food security problems. They have a two-fold crisis - a) their growth rate of food production already lags behind the projected demand and b) future climate change will further disrupt their food supply.”
Impact assessments on agriculture underline the considerable potential of adaptation in abating the negative effects of climate change. Adaptive measures such as a change in planting date, cultivating improved variety, increased nutrient and water application are known to dramatically decrease the negative impacts of climate change.
The results after adaptation point to a much smaller net reduction in the productivity loss of rice (-6 per cent), wheat (-4 per cent) and maize (-13 per cent) by 2080, if adaptive measures are employed. Adaptation might also bring a level playing field for tropics and developing regions, by equalizing the impacts from climate change across different regions.
But these processes are hard to implement and come with a cost. Co-author Bruce Campbell warns, “These adaptation strategies are constrained by the economic, institutional and ecological costs involved. Massive science-guided investments and policy support is required to scale-out adaptation globally. Pathways tosustainable development like climate-smart agriculture may prove to be a more viable alternative than intensive agricultural practices.”