Ashe hits his 60th birthday, Vladimir Putin seems to be in the prime of life: Hehang-glides with Siberian cranes, shows off judo moves and exudes supremeself-confidence at Russia's helm. But scratch the surface and a picture emergesof a surprisingly vulnerable leader whose fate hinges on the vagaries of oilprices and popular docility in the face of strong-arm tactics.
The legacyof Putin's 13-year rule is an economy that depends entirely on an oil-and-gasbonanza and a rigid political system that has stifled dissent, turned theparliament into a rubber stamp and reduced courts to obedient tools for thegovernment.
Are theRussians getting tired of their macho leader, who celebrates his birthdaySunday?
Not yet,experts say, but many of Putin's supporters are backing him out of apathy andfear of change rather than genuine enthusiasm. Such support may fade awayquickly if energy prices slump, leading to widespread hardship.
Someobservers see new repressive Kremlin laws as not merely a response to masswinter rallies in Moscow against Putin's rule, but a pre-emptive move against apotentially much wider protest over economic worries. Utilities fees and othermunicipal payments already have risen in the summer, and analysts predict thatpublic discontent will grow in the fall.
Analystswarn that the government would quickly run out of cash to pay wages andpensions if Russia's energy revenues dry up. Even with the current relativelyhigh oil prices, the Kremlin has been struggling to raise funds for a plannedpension reform.
Putinspokesman Dmitry Peskov told The Associated Press that the economy is Putin'smain concern. He described Russia as a "social state" and said thatreducing pensions wouldn't be acceptable for the country.
Putin haspledged repeatedly to ease Russia's dependence on energy exports, encouragehigh-tech industries, create incentives for small and medium business andimprove the investment climate. But oil and gas revenues still account for thebulk of the government budget, while red tape, rampant corruption and courtsbowing to official orders have spooked investors and stymied economicdevelopment.
"Putinhasn't moved a finger to change the economic model established during his13-year rule, and he can't be realistically expected to make any changesnow," said Stanislav Belkovsky, a political consultant with past ties tothe Kremlin.
During theelection campaign, Putin made generous pledges to raise wages and pensions, aswell as boost social programs and the military budget. Even Cabinet officialshave acknowledged that his promises can't be fulfilled without destabilizingthe economy — meaning he could face trouble whichever way he turns.
"Wecan't afford to simultaneously maintain a high level of paternalist-stylesocial protection, to keep a very big army and to retain a large share ofeconomy in state hands," Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich told abusiness forum this week.
Lev Gudkov,the head of the Levada Center, Russia's leading independent pollster, saidworkers at state-owned factories, who back Putin in a hope that the governmentwill continue to prop up their inefficient industries, form the most loyal partof his support base: "These people feel strongly against reforms andmodernization and are nostalgic about the Soviet times."
Putin alsocontinues to enjoy solid support among teachers, doctors and others who receivetheir wages from the state, but their sentiments are more volatile. "Ifthe situation worsens, they may join the protest movement," Gudkov said.
Putin hassuffered a gradual decline in popularity, but he still enjoys majority supportlargely thanks to the absence of a strong alternative after years of Kremlinefforts to sideline the opposition.
"It's apolitically passive majority which accepts the existing realities," Gudkovsaid.
Whilerunning for a third term in March's election, Putin relied on anti-Americanrhetoric to mobilize his core electorate, accusing the U.S. of fomentingprotests against his rule in order to weaken Russia. He also tried to playblue-collar workers against the educated urban professionals forming the coreof massive protests in Moscow, whom he described as members of the coddledelite at odds with the hard-working majority.
After hisinauguration, Putin cracked down on his foes with a slew of draconian laws thathiked fines 150-fold for taking part in unauthorized protests, decriminalizedslander and required non-government organizations that receive foreign fundingto register as foreign agents. Another bill under discussion widens thedefinition of treason to include handing over information to internationalorganizations.
Threemembers of the feminist punk band Pussy Riot were sentenced to two years inprison in August for performing an anti-Putin "punk prayer" atMoscow's main cathedral, a verdict that drew global outrage and came tosymbolize the Kremlin's crackdown on dissent.
"Putinhas opted for a conservative action course, relying on conservative values andappealing to the most conservative sentiments of the population," saidAlexei Makarkin, a leading analyst with the Center for Political Technologies,an independent think-tank.
He said thatwhile the authorities would probably refrain from using the new laws in"mass repressions," they may prosecute some activists to make anexample of them.
Makarkinpredicted that Putin would continue playing the anti-American card, adding thatmany hawks in Putin's entourage would prefer a Mitt Romney victory in the U.S.presidential election, as the Republican candidate's view of Russia asWashington's "No. 1 geopolitical foe" would give Moscow strongarguments to deepen anti-U.S. policies. "Romney's rhetoric would allow theKremlin to toughen its stance in relations with the United States," he said.
Putin willfind himself at the center of public discontent in case of an economicdownturn. If that happens, analysts say, the president would likely try todeflect the threat by sacrificing his protege Dmitry Medvedev, who became primeminister this year after serving as loyal presidential placeholder for fouryears, with Putin in the premiership due to term limits.
"Putinwill fire Medvedev in case of a severe economic crisis caused by externalfactors," Belkovsky said.