NEW DELHI: The largest public sector lender State Bank of India (SBI) has forecast 7.5 per cent GDP growth for Q4 and 6.7 per cent for the financial year 2017-18.
In its publication Ecowrap, SBI said, "FY18 is likely to spring a positive surprise. We expect GDP growth for Q4FY18 would be around 7.6 per cent and subsequently the FY18 growth would be at 6.7 per cent.
The SBI Ecowrap, authored by Dr. Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Group Chief Economic Adviser, SBI, said, "We expect 9.0 per cent growth in Manufacturing GVA in Q4 due to smart growth in Corporate GVA as both of these are strongly positively correlated. Corporate GVA which decelerated since Q3 FY17 rebounded in Q2 FY18 and exhibited positive growth of 16.1 per cent in Q4 Agriculture sector will post a growth rate in excess of CSO projections with a better foodgrain production estimates. We also believe Service sector growth will hold up in excess of 8 per cent."
"Our Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) Index (a basket of 18 leading indicators) to find out the early signals of turning-points in economic activity reveal a sharp jump in Q4. Our estimate indicate that the CLI index is moving in an upward direction in Q4 of FY18 signaling that the Economic activity is picking up," said the publication.
Meanwhile, the yearly SBI Composite Index for May'18 declined to 52.1 (Low Growth), from 54.1 (Moderate Growth) in Apr'18. While, the M-o-M index increased to 51. 8 (Low Growth) in May'18, from 45.6 (Moderate Decline) in Apr'18.
However, a higher than expected GDP growth for India should not propel us into a false delusion of an impending rate hike cycle.
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The yield on two-year Italian debt was up more than 1.5 per cent points from Monday's close.
This is also perhaps a reason of oil going off the boil in the last few days.
According to SBI Ecowrap, about 626 companies (Total Income more than Rs 100cr in FY18) has reported results for full Financial Year ending 31st March 2018.
The top 10 sectors ranked in order of overall performance, exhibited growth on all fronts viz., Total Income, PBIDT and adj. PAT are stated here-below.
In Capital Goods (Non-Electrical Equipment), HEG Ltd and Graphite India Ltd were top performers.
In Alcohol Beverages, Pioneer Distilleries Ltd and Som Distilleries & Breweries Ltd performed well.
Sectors that turned around from negative PAT in FY17 to positive PAT in FY18 came as a surprise.
Construction and Power Generation & Distribution appear to be trending positive, going by results reported.
Telecom Services reported decline in PAT in FY18 as compared to profit in FY17.
Idea Cellular Ltd reported a major loss of Rs.4780 Cr in FY18 (- Rs 831 Cr in FY17).