NEW DELHI: The coronavirus outbreak has caused losses to the tune of Rs 30.3 lakh crore to the national economy, which is 50 per cent more than the COVID-19 relief package worth Rs 20 lakh crore announced by the central government, says a latest report by SBI Ecowrap.
"We estimated the district-wise, zone wise loss in GSDP for each state and found that total GSDP loss due to COVID-19 for states stands at Rs 30.3 lakh crore, which is 13.5 per cent of total GSDP, " the report elaborated.
This is important to note that so far there had been no official estimate of loss caused by lockdown imposed over two month due to coronavirus. The report also pointed out that states with largest number of cases have contributed maximum to the GDP loss with Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Gujarat leading the pack respectively.
"State-wise analysis indicates that top 10 states accounted for 75 per cent of total GDP loss with Maharashtra contributing 15.6 per cent of total loss, followed by Tamil Nadu (9.4 per cent) and Gujarat (8.6 per cent). These three states also have the largest number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in India, " the report, authored by SBI Group Chief Economic Adviser Soumya Kanti Ghosh said.
According to John Hopkins University data tracker, India become the tenth worst-affected country in the world, leaving behind Iran. India is the tenth most-affected nation by the pandemic after US, Russia, UK, Spain, Italy, Brazil, Germany, Turkey and France, as per the JHU data.
According to the latest Ecowrap report, the loss is maximum around 50 per cent in red zones and where almost all the big districts of India are located. The losses recored in green zones is the least as 80 per cent of population in this zone is located in rural areas which is almost open for all activities.
The report pegs that the first quarter loss in GDP for FY21 could even exceed 40 per cent, however it hints a smart recovery in next quarter, if we are able to sustain the demand. The report also points at huge gap this time in GDP and GVA growth rate.
"Normally the difference between GDP and GVA growth rate is not large, but this time due to huge losses in net indirect taxes the difference will be quite big. We estimate real GVA growth could be at –3.1 per cent in FY21 and real GDP growth at - 6.8 per cent in FY21," it added.