NEW DELHI: The Economic Survey for 2020-21 is expected to come up with a detailed assessment of how much the Indian economy has lost on account of Covid-19-induced lockdown. Despite announcing one of the strictest lockdowns and having announced a series of measures to boost the economy, there had been no official estimates or projection on the quantum of damage to the economy so far.
“As directed by the Finance Ministry, the Economic Survey will have detailed sector-wise assessment of the quantum of loss the economy suffered due to Covid. We did not want to give a quick number now but only after detailed analysis. There will be a separate chapter on it for those who are asking for it. The team is working closely with the industry,” a senior finance ministry official told this publication.
When enquired about the economic consequence of the impact of the pandemic on several occasions at multiple platforms, the finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman had declined to give any numbers and said it will be given when final assessment will be done. However, many reports have been published by individual economists and rating agencies.
According to UBS Securities, the Indian economy may have suffered a staggering Rs 20 lakh crore loss or 10.5 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) between April and September 2020 quarter. It also added that the potential growth to have slowed to 5.75-6.25 per cent due to the longer-than-expected disruption caused by the pandemic. Also there are widely different numbers given by the quantum of job loss, loss to corporates and other indicators.
The Economic Survey, presented in the Parliament ahead of the Union Budget every year, is the finance ministry’s flagship document, prepared by the chief economic advisor and his team. This year it will be
prepared by KV Subramanian.
Economists peg losses to the tune of Rs 20-30 L cr
A report by SBI Ecowrap had in May predicted the coronavirus outbreak to have caused losses to the tune of Rs 30.3 lakh crore to the national economy, while analysts at UBS Securities have estimated
India to have suffered a staggering Rs 20 lakh crore loss or 10.5% of GDP between April and September quarter.