The Indian equity markets, mirroring their global counterparts have shed weight in recent times, as multiple uncertainties loom large over it. But, is it time yet to salvage one’s equity investments, pack up and shift to less volatile asset classes? I have often heard this question over the last few months with the decibel level rising over the last fortnight or so.
My counter to such questions has always been: On the other hand, is this the moment for a calibrated ramp-up of investments in equity and hybrid mutual funds, assuming one’s anchor debt and quasi-debt investments are in place?
In the parlance of mutual fund investors, the same translates to Systematic Transfer Plans (STPs) for high net worth investors, and Systematic Investment Plans (SIPs) for retail investors. This counter-question of mine arises from my firm belief that almost every financial year serves investors in one of these two ways at the bourses — a year for investors or a year for the invested.
To elucidate, the former is characterised by good investment opportunities for investors, while the latter is characterised by good investment returns for the invested.
The window to do the former is usually far shorter and offers decidedly limited opportunities. This makes it clear that if one does not utilise the opportunities in the year for making investments, then one is unlikely to be able to partake of the rewards, as the invested, in the years of good returns. Clearly then, investing is a win-win situation, albeit only for those with a long-term investment (minimum seven years, in my books) perspective and the ability to take calibrated risks.
While prevalent risks like the adverse fallout of any Russian military action in Ukraine, rising oil prices, the rupee-dollar exchange rate, the emergence of yet another corporate scam that will bleed Indian banks, mixed bag third-quarter earnings, an uncomfortable P/E multiple and the possibility of political upheavals post the announcement of assembly elections in some key Indian states next month, all merit attention and respect, they are certainly not insurmountable.
At the same time, to wish them away overnight would be foolhardy too. In such a scenario, what should the investment strategy of long-term investors be in the equity mutual fund investment space? For starters, stay put with the core component of your investment portfolio, assuming the holdings there were purchased with sound reasoning and it still remains part of your long-term investment strategy based on your financial objectives. The rejig, if necessary, could be undertaken in the dynamic component of your investment portfolio.
In conclusion, whenever the market takes a nosedive as one or more of the risk factors play up, just ask yourself if you are a long-term investor and whether this is the financial year in which you should be looking at accumulation? Your answer should determine your course of action.
Ashok Kumar
Head of LKW-India.
He can be reached at ceolotus@hotmail.com