There was talk at the last BRICS summit in June 2022, hosted by China, to expand the club of developing nations; but few thought it would come so soon. The grouping of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) – formed in 2009 to lobby the interests of large, emerging economies – has admitted 6 more nations at its recently concluded Johannesburg session.
The entry of Argentina, Egypt, Iran Saudi Arabia, Ethiopia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) brings together disparate nations like Iran and Saudi Arabia, who have been at loggerheads so far. It also boosts the Russia-China axis, which is keen to form these ‘plurilateral’ blocs to escape the isolation imposed by the West.
The newly expanded BRICS is a new milestone in the global powerplay. A sleepy club of developing economies has suddenly pitchforked itself to becoming the largest voice of emerging countries with a population of 3.7 billion – almost covering half the Globe. As many as 40 more nations are keen to enter, and 23 have formally applied.
As the new alliance unfolds, India is playing a difficult balancing act. It sees the newly expanded BRICS as a stepping stone to increasing rupee trade through these non-US blocs; but is concerned that it may lose the US’ support in its regional tussle with China. Things are fluid but interesting.
The West is skeptical
The West predictably is underplaying the importance of an expanding BRICS. Commentators in the NYT and elsewhere see it as a significant victory for Russia and China against a sanction-wielding Western alliance.
However, these commentators are hoping the bloc will fail to make headway due to the odd mix of ideology and interests. A hotchpotch of Iran, in open alignment with Russia, Saudi Arabia is still entirely dependent on the US for its vast defense arsenal, and with both Brazil and India wanting to tread a middle road between US and China, cannot have a single voice.
Again, spokespersons for the West see the new BRICS alliance with limited economic clout with the exception of China. They point out China has failed in pushing through a BRICS currency to counter the dollar, and now the plan has been degraded to pushing for members to trade with each other in their local currency.
Jim O’Neill, a former Goldman Sachs economist who coined the term BRIC in 2001, called the statements from the new, expanded BRICS meetings “all about symbolism…It’s not clear to me that BRIC summits have done anything,” he was quoted as saying. Despite all the Western bravado, there is quiet concern in Washington at the new wake-up call.
A new NAM emerging?
Can this be a new version of the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) founded by Pandit Nehru, Marshal Josep Tito of Yugoslavia and President Gamal Abdel Nasser of Egypt in the 1950s? As the world slipped into a Cold War between the US and the Soviet Union, the new emerging nations were keen to avoid becoming part of the warring blocs. The 1955 Bandung Conference of the African and Asian nations who had fought colonialism, decided to pitch for a neutral position that allowed them both sovereignty and elbow room for independent economic progress.
NAM was a successful experiment of 120 emerging nations as an anti-colonial, third bloc. The alliance in recent years has lost its clout with after the break-up of the Soviet Union and with fresh alignments like India joining the advanced nations as part of the G20 club. Now, with the Ukraine war and the increasing polarization between the US and China, can BRICS+ emerge as the new NAM?
History rarely repeats itself except as tragedy or farce. An expanded BRICS cannot be a geopolitical Third Bloc when Russia and China are both its members. However, there is a real concern about how to contain the dominance of the North G7 Group.
The obvious counter is to get BRICS to serve as an alternative economic platform to get the best deals in trade and technology. India, for instance, has recently signed an agreement with the UAE to trade in rupees and Emirati dirhams instead of in the US dollar. An expanded BRICS will make similar deals easier.
The alliance can also emerge as an energy trading platform on terms that can beat many West-imposed sanctions. Perhaps the largest beneficiary will be the heavily sanctioned Iran, which can now access BRICS markets. Many are already speaking of a BRICS + OPEC alliance.
But it is the African nations becoming part of BRICS that poses the biggest challenge to the West. There is a discernible movement of Africa away from the US and its allies, who are seen as neo-colonialists wanting to subjugate the continent again. This makes BRICS a significant non-dollar option.
On the other hand, like Brazil and India, the Saudis, Egypt and the UAE have made it clear that they are equidistant from the big powers and don’t see BRICS as an anti-US thing. In this context, it is unlikely that BRICS+ will emerge as a voice of the Global South in the near future. But one can never say. It could move in that direction.