Holy cow! Milking it is bad for the economy
Its India versus China. And it is all happening in the USA.
President Joe Biden has pulled out all stops to give a red carpet welcome to Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The state visit, only the third in Biden’s tenure, was designed to elevate US-India relations to a new high. A huge guard of honour on the South Lawn of the White House; a state dinner with portobello mushrooms personally put together by a chef specializing in vegetarian cuisine; and Oval office deals that allow transfer of US technology denied to India for the last four decades.
The signalling is very clear from Washington. India is no more a pariah. She’s now going to be US’ big Asian partner. After years of denial of jet engine technology, GE Aerospace will sign a deal with Hindustan Aeronautics for manufacturing GE’s F414 engines to power India’s light combat aircraft, the Tejas MK-2.
Among other things, the state visit green lights India’s purchase of about $3 billion worth of MQ-9B SeaGuardian drones. The decks have also been cleared for Micron to set up a semiconductor chip plant in Gujarat. The US company will be investing USD 825 million in the facility soon after China banned its products on security grounds.
Backsliding democracy
India and Prime Minister Modi have come a long way. Nearly 2 decades ago, in 2005, the US denied a visa to Mr Modi following anti-Muslim riots in Gujarat when he was the chief minister. Despite the changed circumstances, India’s backsliding on democratic values continues to hang over the Prime Minister’s state visit.
The widely perceived discrimination against India’s Muslim minority, and the rough treatment of the news media, particularly the ban on BBC’s recent documentary, have not gone down well with many. As many as 70 Democrat lawmakers wrote to Joe Biden to bring up the issue of human rights abuses with Prime Minister Modi. In an interview with CNN, former US President Barrack Obama said India may start “pulling apart” if the government does not protect ethnic minorities.
It is not that the Biden administration is unaware of the creeping autocracy in India. The ‘Democracy Index’, prepared by the Economist Intelligence Unit, has downgraded India to a “flawed democracy”, while the US’ not-for-profit Freedom House has lowered India from a free democracy to a “partially free democracy.”
Containing China
It is just that human rights issues abroad have taken a backseat as the US hurtles into a new era of confrontation in a tri-polar militarized world. China is done with playing the role of a regional power, and is seeking a new ‘world power’ status. Driven by the new nationalism of President Xi Jinping, China is flexing its muscles to unify Taiwan with the mainland – a western outpost fiercely defended by the US.
On the Ukraine front, though China has not entered the war directly, there is a clear axis with Russia to take on the US and its allies through alternative trade agreements, preferential and discounted purchase of Russian oil, supply of munitions to Russia and the construction of an alternative currency to the dollar.
As the Russia-China alliance strengthens, the US is increasingly desperate to firm up strong Asian allies. India, currently facing aggressive Chinese expansionism on its Himalayan borders has therefore become a natural ally in the new domino war. It is already part of the Quad – Australia, Japan, India and the US - alliance. The US is also keen to break India’s dependence on Soviet and later Russian arms imports. It has come down from 62 per cent in 2017 to about 45 per cent in 2022, but most of India’s arms hardware is still Russian. Ironically, it is the US stonewalling of India’s defence demands that pushed the latter into Russia’s lap; but now the US is reversing its position seeing India’s keenness to diversify.
Biden also wants to break China’s global supply chain control by helping India become an alternative hub for intermediate products like the sub-conductor microchip currently in heavy short supply.
Finally, those who have followed the US’ foreign policy over the last decade will know that the country’s domestic allegiance to the Freedom Charter has very little to do with human rights in other parts of the globe. Toppling regimes that are unfriendly, rigging elections and bumping off leaders perceived to be anti-US has been the active mandate of the US’ Central Intelligence Agency (CIA).
From the assassination of Congolese leader Patrice Lumumba in 1961 to the killing of Chilean left-wing President Salvador Allende in 1971, the hand of the US has never been far behind. Little wonder that in the current Russia-US faceoff in Ukraine, there is little trust in African capitals in the US position.
That said, it is unlikely human rights will dictate US’ foreign policy towards India. Thanks to the Nehruvian policy of non-alignment, India has always shunned membership in international blocs. However, there’s a rapidly changing geo-political balance, and it offers an opportunity to get the most out of the US. It’s an opportunity that should be cashed.