CHENNAI: The Mumbai real estate market is all set for an encore of the robust performance seen in 2022, said Antique Stock Broking, after analyzing stamp duty and registration data for Maharashtra and Mumbai for July and August.
"We reiterate our view on the continuation of the strong momentum both in demand and supply, as we move into the second half of 2023, driven by sector tailwinds. We expect a significant supply uptick from October 23," the firm said in a report on the real estate sector.
It pointed out that in August 2023, Mumbai saw a total of 10,752 properties being registered in the city, despite it being a seasonally weak period. This represented a 5% month-on-month increase in property registrations.
“Considering it is the peak monsoon period, Jul-Aug23 registration numbers are encouraging. Jul-Aug 23 registrations in Mumbai were at 20,973, which is 5% higher than the same period in 2022,” the broker said, citing the data.
“We believe that the robust demand in the residential segment will continue for the rest of the year and ~10,000+ property registrations per month in Mumbai is the new normal, however, a significant uptick from this level is unlikely,” it added.
Even for Maharashtra, registrations showed a year-on-year increase of 17% in August. Nearly 1.31 lakh homes were registered in the state, making it the best August month in the past eight years.
Continuing trend
The registration numbers and stamp duty collections in Mumbai and Maharashtra are in line with the uptick in real estate demand post-Covid-19.
Compared to the pre-COVID average of 6,192 registrations per month in 2018 and 2019, Mumbai has seen an average of 10,000 registrations since October 2020, as pointed out by Antique. According to major real estate developers, this trend is set to continue, the broker said.
Meanwhile, the brisk sales has helped with clearing long-pending inventory, particularly in Mumbai.
Inventories – or unsold houses – have improved from 35 months in 2018-19 to 13 months in July 2023. In other words, the number of unsold homes was equal to 35 months worth of sales, compared to 13 months now.
In absolute terms, the unsold inventory level in Mumbai has fallen to 67 mn sq. ft.or Rs 1.51 lakh crores as of July 2023.It was at 93.11 mn sq ft or Rs 1.93 lakh crore in 2018.
However, the broker expects inventory levels to increase going forward as new supplies come into the market, while sales is expected to remain stable.
At the same time, it added, there is a preference for more well-known developers, such as Macrotech Developers, Prestige Estates, and Godrej Properties, among the consumers, and this could lead to some consolidation in the real estate sector in Mumbai.