The Union Budget has just been announced, and all of us at The New Indian Express are smiling.
Our first edition of the Shadow Budget, which went live last Sunday, turned out to be on the money.
Right from nominal and real growth estimates to expenditure and revenue projections, TNIE's suggestions were mostly in line with those presented by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Wednesday.
While Professor Anil K Sood, who punched in the numbers, pegged FY24 nominal and real growth of 11% and 6% respectively, the Union Budget estimated them at 10.5% and 6% respectively. Sood's growth estimates, however, are in consonance with the Economic Survey 2023, presented on Tuesday.
As for total expenditure, the Shadow Budget and Union Budget were on the same page, pegging FY23 revised estimates at Rs 41 lakh crore and FY24's estimate at Rs 45 lakh crore. This translates to an increase of 11.1%.
As for revenue receipts, Centre's net tax revenue, borrowings, and fiscal deficit, the Shadow Budget was in lockstep with Sitharaman's sums for both FY23 revised figures and FY24 projections.
While the Finance Minister pegged gross tax revenue at Rs 33 lakh crore in FY24, our estimates were a shade higher at Rs 34 lakh crore. Both saw FY23 revised numbers at Rs 30 lakh crore. Within tax revenue again, corporate tax collections, personal income taxes, GST revenue and non-tax revenue, the Shadow Budget leveled the score with minor decimal point differences for both FY23 revised estimates and FY24 projections.
That said, there were a few components where the Shadow Budget and Union Budget numbers went in different directions. The foremost among all is capital expenditure. While the Centre raised FY24 capex to Rs 10 lakh crore, our estimate stood at Rs 8.15 lakh crore.