For most of 2022 and 2023, stock markets across the world were kept under a tight leash by the US Federal Reserve, with its continuous interest rate hikes and relentlessly dismal commentary.
However, in a move that took many by surprise, the US central bank shifted its stance from hawkish to dovish in December. This so-called 'Fed pivot' came as a shock to many, as the Fed had consistently maintained a tough stance on inflation, vowing to keep interest rates high until it was brought under control.
Until then, the line of argument was that it was important to make sure the inflation genie was fully inside the bottle before thinking about easing, as trying to get it back in after a botched attempt would be twice as tough as the first time.
However, after the rate-setting committee's meeting in December, Powell was a changed man, and said there was no need to wait for inflation to fall to the target of 2% before cutting rates. Powell's reason: Interest rates have a lagging effect on economic activity and if inflation has consistently fallen to 3% so far, it can be assumed that the remaining impact in the pipeline would take it from 3% to 2% over the coming months.
It was, therefore, important to avoid 'over tightening' as too high an interest rate can suffocate economic activity and cause widespread unemployment.
However, many analysts believe that the actual reason may have had more to do with the ballooning US government debt and the catastrophic impact that rising interest rates were having on the US government's finances. If the US govt was forced to pay a 6% interest rate on its $35 trillion debt, it would have to set apart $2.1 trillion just to service this debt. This would dwarf the $1.3 trillion it spends on social security programs, and the 0.7 trillion it spends on defence.
And as the days rolled by, more and more of US government debt was coming up for repayment and refinancing at the prevailing 6% rates.
In other words, the Fed may not have had much choice but to start easing interest rates soon to prevent a significant portion of the US government budget from being consumed by debt-servicing costs. Of course, this reason was never spelt out as a consideration.
Stock Euphoria
Whatever the real reason behind the Fed pivot, it had an immediate and significant impact on stock markets worldwide. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, the US equivalent of the Nifty 50, has so far risen by around 25% from its November lows and approximately 10% from mid-December, when the Fed made the pivot official. Indian markets too have kept pace, with the Nifty 50 gaining around 20% from its November lows and about 10% from December.
This was also reflected in the yields -- or interest rates -- applicable to US government bonds. Yields on long-term bonds are seen as the markets' view on long-term interest rates in the economy. In other words, a yield of 7% on a 10-year bond indicates that the market expects the interest rate to remain around 7% on average over the next ten years. When there are developments that suggest that interest rates may have to kept high, the yields on treasury bonds rise, and vice versa.
Hence, when the Fed was busy playing the hawk, the yield on the 30-year US Treasury bond had reached a 15-year high of 5.11% in October 2023. However, this crashed to just 4.0% by December 15, shortly after the Fed switched from hawk to dove and hinted at upcoming rate cuts.
A Turn Of Events
However, something curious has been happening in the bond markets since then. Bond yields, which crashed in December following the pivot, have been slowly creeping up.
By Tuesday, April 2, the 30-year yield had retraced 46% of its fall, rising to 4.51%. This means that the bond markets expects interest rates in the US to rise, and not fall, as should be implied by Fed's commentary.
In other words, the rising bond yields is the markets' way of calling the Federal Reserve's bluff as far as 'impending cuts' are concerned.
At the same time, the stock markets continue to be in a party mood, hitting new highs every week, and are ensconced at all-time highs.
This raises a perplexing question: How can bond markets and stock markets have such diametrically opposing views, and more importantly, which one is right?
This conundrum can only be explained by looking at two additional factors – the ballooning US government debt and stubborn inflation levels in the US.
Bond investors seem to be betting against the benign picture painted by the Fed about the lag effect of rate hikes bringing inflation down to 2% from 3%. The bond markets seem to be betting that this may not happen, and that inflation may have already bottomed out will now again resume its upward course.
In this, they seem to be taking their cues from key inflation metrics -- particularly US Core CPI and Core PCE.
For example, the core consumer price index, which excludes food and energy costs, increased by 0.4% in February compared to January. A 0.4% increase over a month implies an annualized inflation rate of 4.9% -- far from the US Fed's target of 2%.
What was more concerning was that this number was going the wrong way. In January, core CPI was at 0.3% -- or an annualized rate of 3.7% -- and for December, it had been at 0.2% (annualized rate - 2.4%).
In other words, inflation, instead of going down, is looking up since Fed made the pivot - betting on lag impact. Little wonder then that bond investors are betting that the Fed will be in no shape to implement the 0.75 percentage point cut everyone expects this year.
Lessons for Indian Stock Investors
This raises a key question for Indian stock investors -- what will be the implications of the widely anticipated cuts in US interest rates failing to show up on Indian stock markets?
Today, the global economic landscape is intricately interconnected, and developments in the US economy, particularly the Fed's monetary policy, can have far-reaching effects on Indian stock markets.
If inflation returns to the world's largest economy and the US Fed is forced to maintain interest rates at 5.5% or even increase them further to rein in rising inflation, it would hit India stock markets in several ways.
First, it would lead to withdrawal of money by foreign institutional investors, attracted by the higher rates of return in the US -- considered a safer market than India. Moreover, there is also the minor detail about currency risk.
Higher interest rates in the US could lead to a strengthening of the US dollar, making emerging markets like India less attractive for foreign investors. Both of these could trigger FII outflows from the Indian stock market, putting downward pressure on stock prices.
Secondly, major central banks such as the US Federal Reserve have been the fountain, nay the geyser, of liquidity that have raised stock prices to their current elevated levels. If the Fed is forced to maintain high interest rates or even raise them further, this would immediately start draining global liquidity. This tightening of financial conditions would dampen stock valuations across the world, including in India.
Third, when the US increases interest rates, the RBI and ECB are also forced to increase interest rates to combat imported inflation, as was seen in 2023. This would further raise borrowing costs for Indian companies, pressuring their profitability and, in turn, their stock prices.
Moreover, many sectors of the Indian economy, such as IT and pharmaceuticals, have significant exposure to the US market, and would be hurt by any dip in US economic activity caused by higher interest rates. This was already clearly visible through 2022 and 2023, when IT companies turned ultra-cautious and stopped adding manpower.
Hence, it is important for Indian stock investors to keep an eye on US inflation numbers, such as the March CPI numbers that are expected to be released towards the end of next week. If the month-on-month core CPI number does not ease up considerably to 0.2%, it likely implies that US inflation is turning out to be stickier than the Fed, and stock investors, expected.
If, on the other hand, it remains in the 0.4% range, it should seen as a flashing red signal for Indian stock investors, who should brace themselves for a 'higher for longer' regime in 2024.