A young man this writer knows has been in and out of many relationships. He finally seemed to like this girl, and was maybe thinking of marriage and a family. But then misfortune struck again: the nice girl is adamant she doesn’t want children, and he’s not sure he can go with that.
This is not this young man’s problem alone. We are discovering the DINKs – Double-Income-No-Kids – problem is a worldwide phenomenon; and it has serious economic and societal ramifications. By choice, the modern millennials and the Gen Z are avoiding parenthood, almost selfishly dedicating themselves to self-improvement. Growing larger families is being seen as a distraction, an unwanted responsibility.
At first, these DINKs were seen as kinky fringe elements. But they have now become a full blown cultural mainstream. Studies in the US show by 2022 childless households in the US had hit a high of 43 percent, up from 36 percent a decade earlier; and in the near future they will constitute 50 percent. It’s a baby bust, big time; and it is not only in the US. Sociologists are saying as countries reach a certain degree of economic development, fertility rates begin dropping fast. Growth slows, and then it becomes difficult to maintain the population after the birth rate falls below 2.1 children per woman – the minimum required to renew the numbers that pass away.
‘Hum-do, hamare-do’ – the catchy Family Planning slogan of the 1970s and 80s – has probably not something the millennials have ever heard of. It was coined in the days of high poverty and deprivation, when the government struggled to slow the high fertility rate of 4-5 children per woman. It is from the days when ‘emergency’ and nasbandi were both bad words!
The world has moved on since. As global fertility rates fall, for the first time in modern history, the world’s population is expected to stop growing by the end of this century, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of UN population data.
Between 2050 and 2100, 90 countries will show a shrinking population, most of them in Europe and Latin America. Africa is the only region projected to show strong population growth for the rest of this century. Between 2020 and 2100, the continent’s population is expected to increase from 1.3 billion to 4.3 billion.
The stark case of South Korea’s plummeting fertility rate is well documented. Politicians have been offering sops, and community leaders begging parents to produce more kids. Both have hit a wall. In 2023, the country’s reproductive hit a new low, and there are fears that the country’s population of 51 million may halve by 2100 if current trends continue. The fear of ‘national extinction’has forced the government to spend $270 billion on child care programmes, while parents are given a sweetener of $1,510 on the birth of a child. These sops have not reversed the trends as the South Korean birth rate is expected to further fall to 0.68 children per woman this year from 0.72 in 2022.
The country’s workaholic culture, along with the high competitiveness to rise fast on the professional scale leaves women scrambling with little time to risk producing and bringing up babies. South Korea big gender bias in payouts has added to the problem of pushing women to give low priority to rearing children.
In India too, the DINKs culture among young couples is riding on the fast-declining fertility rate. Lancet has predicted some time ago that by 1950 total fertility rate will dip irreversibly to about 1.29 children per women. This will result in an ageing population wherein 1 in 5 Indians will be a senior citizen. It will lead to a shrinking workforce that could impact productivity.
To understand how far we have come, the total fertility rate (TFR) was 6.18 in 1950, which reduced to 4.60 in in 1980, and further to 1.91 in 2021. Some local factors completely changed the landscape. Infant mortality, that was high, has dipped because of improved child care. This has reduced the need to have many children, to ensure some survived. Second, many children – an investment for old age – has reversed; and the cost of raising children today has outstripped the possible returns in old age.
How are young couples who avoid parenthood coping with the new DINKs phenomenon? The huge adoption of pets in urban agglomerations is one indication. Dogs and cats are showered with parental love, albeit with lower responsibility. Others are using their new found ‘freedom’ for travel and adventure sports. It is changing the way people live. The US is seeing a migration of families with children to the suburbs of cities and smaller towns. On the other hand, the under-5 population of urbanized centers like New York and Los Angeles is shrinking fast.
There is a pattern in India too where couples, who prefer to go without children or delay parenthood – typically DINKs in the IT, advertising or other high octane corporate jobs – stay in posh but small apartments in town and close to work; and spend the time they have after long working hours on socializing or expensive holidays.
There have been many baby booms and busts in the past. But in this round, the cultural pattern is clearly favouring shrinking families, and bearing children as a last resort.