NEW DELHI: The US election results could have a far reaching impact on global trade if Donald Trump emerges victorious on November 12, the election results day. Trump, who has been raising the issue of high tariffs levied by India on US goods, has promised retaliatory action if he gets elected.
The US is the biggest destination of Indian exports with the country accounting for 18% of India’s exports. India exported $77.5 billion worth of goods in 2023-24. The US also accounts for almost 80% of the IT exports from India.
As per Ajay Shrivastava, founder of Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), if Trump wins, he may extend tariffs beyond China to include India and other countries.
“His America First agenda would likely push for protective measures such as reciprocal tariffs on Indian goods, potentially adding barriers for key Indian exports like automobiles, wines, textiles, and pharmaceuticals. These increases could make Indian products less competitive in the US, impacting revenue in these sectors,” warns Shrivastava.
Experts say IT sector exports could also get impacted if Trump wins in and implement his policies against outsourcing. H-1B visa policies are crucial for the movement of skilled professionals, especially from India’s IT sector. As per experts, Trump’s stricter immigration stance could lead to changes in visa rules, impacting Indian IT professionals and raising costs for Indian IT companies.
Manoranjan Sharma, chief economist at Infomerics Ratings, says sectors with significant exposure to US policies -- IT services, pharmaceuticals, and textile sectors could need a re-orientation because of changes in trade policies. However, he feels the bonhomie and the personal chemistry between the Indian PM and the US President could significantly help smoothen ruffled feathers. Sharma is of the view that should Trump romp home, India’s domestic growth path could get an impetus because of Trump’s focus on keeping oil prices low and stable.
IT sector exports could get impacted if Trump wins
According to experts, IT sector exports could also get impacted if Donald Trump wins in and implement his policies against outsourcing. H-1B visa policies are crucial for the movement of skilled professionals, especially from India’s IT sector.