MUMBAI: The current account deficit, which is the difference between what a nation earns through exports and spends on imports, rose to USD 9.7 billion, or 1.1 per cent of GDP, in the fiscal first quarter of the fiscal, compared with a deficit of USD 8.9 billion or 1 percent in the same quarter a year ago. In the previous quarter, the same was a surplus of , which was the first in the 10 quarters.
And analysts are expecting this to bulge further driven mostly by the spike in gold imports, which in August was over USD 10 billion, nearly double of the monthly average.
According to the Reserve Bank data released Monday, the country's CAD widened marginally to USD 9.7 billion or 1.1 percent of GDP in the June 2024 quarter, up from USD 8.9 billion or 1 percent in the year-ago period. And the Q4 of FY24 saw the economy posting a current account surplus of USD 5.7 billion or 0.5 percent of GDP—a first in 10 quarters.
The current account represents a nation’s external sector strength, and the more the surplus the better its ability to tide over external pressure and also to support its currency. If a nation imports more than its exports the current account will be in the deficit mode. Being a net importer of fuels and gold, the country very rarely have current account surpluses.
Meanwhile, the RBI has revised downward the current account surplus for Q4FY24 to USD 4.6 billion from USD 5.7 billion earlier due to an upward adjustment of customs data on merchandise imports.
The Reserve Bank attributed the on-year widening in CAD to a rise in merchandise trade gap that came in at USD 5.1 billion in Q1 compared to USD 56.7 billion in the year-ago period.
Net services receipts rose to USD 39.7 billion during the quarter from USD 35.1 billion a year ago, the RBI said, adding services in areas like computers, business, travel and transportation have risen, while, there was a sharp moderation in the net foreign portfolio investment to USD 0.9 billion from USD 15.7 billion in the year ago period, the RBI said.
Net inflows under external commercial borrowings (ECBs) came down to USD 1.8 billion during the quarter, and was lower than USD 5.6 billion registered in the corresponding period a year ago.
In what can be seen as a jump in remittances by the diaspora, the private transfer receipts rose to USD 29.5 billion from USD 27.1 billion witnessed in the same period of last fiscal. Net foreign direct investment inflows increased to USD 6.3 billion from USD 4.7 billion on year, the RBI said.
Payments of investment income, under the net outgo on the primary income account, rose to USD 10.7 billion from the last year's USD 10.2 billion. Non-resident deposits (NRI deposits) rose to USD 4 billion, higher than USD 2.2 billion a year ago, the RBI said.
There was an accretion of USD 5.2 billion to the foreign exchange reserves on a balance of payments basis in Q1 compared to USD 24.4 billion in Q1 FY24, the RBI said.
Aditi Nayar, the chief economist at Icra Ratings said, the rise in CAS undershot her forecast primarily on account of secondary income. Looking ahead, the spike in gold imports in August following the custom's duty cut is likely to bloat Q2 number considerably to nearly 2 percent.
“With gold imports unlikely to sustain this surge in the coming months, we expect the monthly merchandise trade deficit to ease and CAD is likely to average at 1.1-1.2 percent for the full year,, she said.
India Ratings said the numbers are as expected as merchandise exports expanded by 5.9 percent to USD 111.2 billion which was the fastest pace of increase in six quarters. On the other hand, merchandise imports grew higher by 9.1 percent to USD 176.3 billion. As a result, goods trade deficit shot up by 14.9 percent to USD 65.1 billion.
Global trading activity has been picking up well so far in FY25 and so far grew 1.4 percent, despite the economic environment being under a mix of uncertainty and volatility. At this rate global trade growth is the fastest in six quarters. However, there is some bit of slackening particularly in developed economies.
Merchandise imports are expected to grow 3.5 percent to around USD 176 billion in 2Q and the overall goods trade deficit will come in at USD 68 billion, helping the economy print the ful year CAD at 1 percent.