NEW DELHI: India will surpass Vietnam in mobile phone export volumes by the end of this year, according to a study by the Centre for Development Studies (CDS). The report highlights that China will continue to play a key role in India’s electronics manufacturing growth, especially as a major supplier of crucial components.
The study, led by Professor C Veeramani, Director and RBI Chair Professor at CDS, recommends that India adopt a Global Value Chain (GVC)-centric approach to become one of the world’s top smartphone suppliers and boost domestic value addition up to 40%. GVCs function like global assembly lines, where different parts of a product are produced in different countries. Each contributes in the segment where it holds a comparative advantage—such as lower labor costs, specialized skills, access to raw materials, or advanced technology.
China and Vietnam followed this model: they began with mobile assembly and gradually built a comprehensive ecosystem of component suppliers. The study argues that India should follow a similar path, moving away from trying to design, manufacture, and assemble products entirely within one country.
“India’s success mirrors the path of other Asian economies—first achieving scale, and then deepening value addition. Export-led growth is the foundation for long-term competitiveness, and sustained government support will be essential over the next decade,” said Prof. Veeramani.
The study notes that India has quickly risen to become the third-largest mobile phone exporting country, with exports valued at $20.5 billion in 2024 (CY2024). This transformation began around 2017 and is largely credited to strong government support and India's strategic integration into GVCs—especially after the launch of the Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme in 2020.
As per the study, mobile phone exports surged dramatically, from just $0.2 billion in 2017-18 to $24.1 billion in 2024, driven by large-scale production geared for export. As per the study, India’s mobile phone industry also saw a significant increase in Domestic Value Addition (DVA), both directly and through supporting industries. The total DVA (direct + indirect) reached 23%—amounting to over $10 billion in 2022–23.
Simultaneously, mobile phone imports dropped sharply, from $8 billion in 2014–15 to just $0.43 billion in 2024–25. India, which once faced a trade deficit in mobile phones, achieved a trade balance in 2018–19 and has maintained a growing surplus ever since.
“As China increasingly focuses on high-end components and design, India has a critical opportunity to become the next major global hub for electronics manufacturing, particularly in assembly. India’s large labor force is a major strength in this transition,” read the study.