The domestic e-retail market, which has already become the world’s second largest online shopper base, is projected to grow at least three times to reach $170-$190 billion in gross merchandise value by 2030, from $60 billion in 2024, says a latest report by management consultancy firm Bain & Company.
According to the report, India's Flipkart has already become the second-largest e-retail platform globally, with a shopper base of over 270 million in 2024.
The e-retail market is projected to scale three time by 2030 from the current $60 billion. The domestic retail market was over $1 trillion in 2024, and continues to be a critical channel even as the online channel grows, added the report, which has also noted that the continuing slowdown in consumption has slowed down retail growth to 10-12% in 2024, compared to historical growth rates exceeding 20%.
However, by 2030, e-retail is projected to exceed 18% growth with nearly 10% or 1 in 10 retail dollars spent online, fueled by increased discretionary spending and when the per capita GDP is expected to surpass $3,500–4,000, which is a key inflection point observed in e-retail spending globally.
Categories with high purchase frequency, such as grocery, lifestyle, and general merchandise, are set to contribute around 70% of the incremental growth by 2030, with penetration levels expected to climb two to four times from current levels.
The e-retail market is demonstrating remarkable resilience and adaptability, said Arpan Sheth, a partner at Bain.
The rise of quick commerce, trend-first commerce, and hyper-value commerce is transforming the landscape, creating exciting opportunities for brands and retailers who can cater to the diverse needs of consumers. Democratization of the shopping landscape with widening access to national brands/assortment in small towns underserved areas is a key driver of growth he added.
Etail has expanded from tier-2 cities to tier-3 and smaller cities with 60% of new customers since 2020 and 45% of orders since 2023 from these areas. Etail shopper penetration in the Northeast is 1.2x higher than the rest of the country.
The seller ecosystem is also diversifying, with 60% sellers on-boarded since 2021 hailing from trier-2 or smaller cities.