Despite the excitement on social media and recent claims by a top government official, India has not yet overtaken Japan to become the world’s fourth-largest economy. According to the latest International Monetary Fund (IMF) projections, India’s GDP is expected to reach $3.9 trillion by the end of the 2024-25 fiscal year—short of Japan’s projected $4.026 trillion GDP for the 2024 calendar year.
The confusion began after NITI Aayog CEO BVR Subrahmanyam, in a recent press briefing, declared, “We are the fourth largest economy in the world as I speak. This is not my data, this is IMF data. India is larger than Japan.” The remark quickly went viral, prompting celebrations across social media platforms.
However, the data doesn’t quite support the claim—at least not yet.
According to the IMF, India is projected to edge past Japan in GDP size only by the end of FY26. At that point, India’s GDP is expected to touch $4.187 trillion, slightly ahead of Japan’s $4.186 trillion. Notably, the IMF presents India’s fiscal year (April–March) as the corresponding calendar year, which appears to have contributed to the misunderstanding.
Adding to the ambiguity is the difference in how we IMF and India shows fiscal year. IMF shows the fiscal year FY2024-25 as FY24 while in India FY 2024-25 is written as FY25. This misalignment likely led to a misinterpretation of IMF’s 2025 projections as current data.
TNIE reached out to Niti Aayog for a clarity on the claim, but could not elicit a response from them till the time of filing of the report.
Meanwhile, the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), in its first advance estimate, pegged India’s nominal GDP for FY25 at ₹324 lakh crore. At an assumed average exchange rate of ₹84 per dollar, that would place India’s GDP at around $3.85 trillion—still trailing Japan.
A clearer picture will emerge when MoSPI releases the fourth-quarter GDP data on May 30, 2025.
Even when India officially overtakes Japan, experts urge caution in reading too much into the milestone. Despite the potential crossover in GDP size, India’s per capita income will remain significantly lower—estimated at around $2,900, compared to Japan’s $34,000—highlighting the wide gap in living standards and economic maturity.