Global equities poised for modest gains ahead of key data and fed signals
CHENNAI: The US futures trade on early Friday point to a modestly positive start, supported by optimism around potential Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year and steady corporate earnings. The rebound comes after a choppy week marked by concerns over the ongoing government shutdown, which has delayed some key economic data releases.
According to leading brokerages quoted in western media reports, investors are expected to focus on:
Any new comments from the US Federal Reserve that could guide rate expectations.
US data prints such as PMI and jobless claims, which may carry more weight given limited releases.
Sector moves, with tech, financials, and AI-related stocks likely to lead if risk appetite holds.
But, risks remain from the prolonged shutdown, weaker-than-expected data, or any shift in Fed tone. The base case suggests a small gap-up of 0.2–0.5 percent at the open, though volatility could rise if news flow turns negative.
However, European equities are set to open higher, extending recent gains as global sentiment improves. Banking and mining shares are expected to lead the rally, helped by firmer commodity prices and optimism about easier policy from major central banks.
In the Friday trade, investors will be watching:
Eurozone PMI and other economic data, which will be key to gauging recovery strength.
Any remarks from European Central Bank (ECB) officials on inflation and monetary easing.
Energy and commodity price moves, given Europe’s sensitivity to oil and metals.
Analysts expect a moderate positive opening of 0.3–0.7 percent, with cyclicals, financials, and industrials likely to outperform. However, weaker data from Germany or France, or renewed geopolitical tensions, could temper gains.
According to leading stock analysists, as reports say, markets remain pinned between expectations of interest rate cuts and central banks’ cautious approach.
Sector rotation may drive trading patterns, with investors shifting between growth, value, and cyclicals. Volatility could pick up in October after a relatively calm period, particularly if surprises emerge from macro data or earnings, while cross-asset signals from bond yields, currency moves, and oil prices will be closely tracked.
Market predictions suggest a cautiously positive start for US and European equities on October 3. Gains may be led by financials, tech, and metals, but sentiment remains fragile. Any disappointment in data or central bank signals could quickly reverse early momentum.