MUMBAI: After Reliance Industries chairman Mukesh Ambani’s recent AGM announcement that the telecom arm will be listed next year, global bank JP Morgan has valued Reliance Jio Infocomm at $135 billion and Reliance Retail at $143 billion.
In a report, the Wall Street major said RIL’s consumer businesses are set to drive nearly all of the group’s earnings growth in the coming years. Reliance Retail’s December revenue could be supported by the recent GST cuts. A tariff increase at Jio is likely ahead of the IPO, it added.
“Reliance Retail and telecom now account for 54% of the total FY25 consolidated Ebitda (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization). In our estimates, they will account for almost all of the net Ebitda growth over the next three years,” JP Morgan analysts wrote in a September 30 report.
RIL's 83% stake in Reliance Retail is valued at Rs 10.5 trillion or $118 billion, or Rs 776 a share, based on a 34.5x blended multiple of FY27-FY28 Ebitda, the report said.
JPMorgan forecasts segmental Ebitda of Rs 34,400 crore in FY27, rising to Rs 39,000 crore by FY28. The brokerage also notes that Reliance Retail trades below Avenue Supermarts’ 42x multiples, and said any crystallisation of valuation upside through an initial public offering or stake sale could provide further gains.
JP Morgan valued RIL's 67% stake in the telecom arm at Rs 8 trillion or $90 billion, or Rs 592 a share, using a 13x multiple of FY27-FY28 Ebitda. The business is projected to deliver Rs 86,400 crore of Ebitda in FY27, increasing to nearly Rs 97,600 crore in FY28.
The brokerage also expects a broader tariff increase ahead of Jio’s planned 2026 listing, noting this would support profitability.
By contrast, the brokerage has valued Reliance’s oil-to-chemicals segment at Rs 4.85 trillion, or Rs 358 per share, highlighting the shift in RIL’s value composition from refining and petrochemicals to consumer businesses. Smaller valuations are ascribed to exploration and production, real estate, and semiconductor/renewables.
JP Morgan maintains its overweight rating on RIL with a September 2026 price target of Rs 1,695, citing comfortable relative valuations, the prospect of positive free cash flow as telecom spending fades, and the management’s guidance of keeping net debt-to-Ebitda below 1x. And with an Ebitda run rate of about $20 billion annually, the brokerage says Reliance should turn cash-flow positive despite continued capex in new energy, retail, and petrochemicals.