Global oil supply set for significant growth over next two years, says IEA
NEW DELHI: The world’s oil supply is on track for substantial growth over the next two years, with an increase of 3 million barrels per day (mb/d) expected in 2025 and a further 2.4 mb/d in 2026, according to a report from the International Energy Agency (IEA).
The monthly Oil Marketing Reports by IEA also highlight that the bulk of this future growth will come from producers outside the OPEC+ alliance. The United States, Brazil, Canada, Guyana, and Argentina are expected to contribute a combined 1.6 mb/d (million barrel per day) of additional supply in 2025, followed by a further 1.2 mb/d in 2026.
The Paris-based agency also notes that OPEC+ is poised to contribute significantly to the global increase, with the group projected to add 1.4 mb/d this year and 1.2 mb/d next year, as member countries gradually unwind previous production cuts.
In September 2025, global oil supply rose by a remarkable 5.6 mb/d compared to the same month a year earlier. OPEC+ accounted for 3.1 mb/d of this increase, driven by the unwinding of 2 mb/d in production cuts by the core Group of Eight, as well as strong output gains from Libya, Venezuela, and Nigeria.
Based on the latest agreement among member nations, OPEC+ is now expected to boost production by an average of 1.4 mb/d in 2025 and a further 1.2 mb/d in 2026. Meanwhile, non-OPEC+ producers are on track to add 1.6 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively, over the same period—led by robust production growth in the US, Brazil, Canada, Guyana, and Argentina.
However, the IEA also warns of risks to global supply stemming from geopolitical tensions. Sanctions on Russia and Iran, along with persistent attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, have disrupted supply chains. Russian crude processing has reportedly fallen by an estimated 500,000 barrels per day (kb/d), resulting in domestic fuel shortages and reduced exports.
The decline in Russian middle distillate exports has had global repercussions, with regular buyers scrambling to find alternative sources. This has pushed up prices for diesel and jet fuel, with refining margins for light sweet crude hitting two-year highs in Europe and 18-month highs on the US Gulf Coast and in Singapore during September.
