India’s merchandise trade deficit widened all-time high in 13 months to $32.15 billion in September, primarily due to the impact of US tariffs, fall in petroleum exports and sudden surge in the gold and silver imports. Department of Commerce cautioned that the impact of the US tariff will be even significant in the coming month.
“Definitely, the impact will be there on the industry. So how much of this sector I think we need to wait for a very commodity level data for the month of September before arriving at any kind of choice. Right now (for) September, it is initial. October (the impact) will be more firm,” said commerce secretary Rajesh Agarwal.
According to the commerce ministry data, goods exports to the US fell by more than 20% to $5.43 billion in September from $6.87 billion in August, with tariffs impacting the shipments of items like carpets textiles, shrimp, and gems and jewellery. However, the total export to the US between April and September 2025 went up by more than 13% as compared to the same period in previous year. In the first six months, the total value of exports to the US stood at $45.82 billion this year, while it was $40.42 billion in 2024. “If you look at on a cumulative basis, we are still doing better than last year. That means there is part of the industry which do not have tariffs, that is doing well, but there is also part of the industry which do have tariffs now, but that is also growing, that is also exploding and exports have not come down > to zero. So, that means there is part of supply chains which are fighting these challenges and still trying to maintain the supply chains,” added the commerce secretary.
On a cumulative basis including both merchandise and services, India’s trade deficit widened to an estimated $16.61 billion in September, compared with $9.88 billion in August. Total exports, including merchandise and services, were $67.20 billion, slightly up from $63.25 billion in August, while imports increased to $83.82 billion from $79.04 billion in August, showed the data released on Wednesday. The total exports and imports stood at $66.68 billion and $ 75.28 billion respectively in September 2024.
Apart from the impact of the US tariff, the widening trade deficit has been attributed to the fall in the petroleum exports and significant surge in gold, silver and fertilizers. Department of Commerce confirmed that there has been a significant fall in the petroleum exports to countries like Singapore and Netherland.
