CHENNAI: Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) is expected to report its earnings for the quarter ended September 2025 (Q2 FY26) today, with analysts projecting healthy growth in revenue and profit, led by its oil-to-chemicals (O2C), telecom, and retail businesses. Since investors closely tracking the main performance parameters, especially after the stock faced pressure since the previous quarter earnings, the focus this quarter will be on core operating milestones, margin trends, and management commentary on new energy initiatives and upcoming telecom strategies.
The company’s diversified portfolio continues to provide a cushion against volatility in any single segment. Analysts expect net profit to rise around 10–11 percent year-on-year, reaching about Rs 18,000–Rs 19,000 crore, while revenue is likely to grow between 6 and 8 percent. A few estimates place the top-line growth closer to double digits, supported by stronger refining margins, steady telecom additions, and stable retail volumes.
Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) are projected to increase by roughly 12–17 percent compared to last year, reflecting better margins in the refining and digital services segments. The O2C business is expected to show a rebound, benefiting from improved refining cracks and throughput, although petrochemical margins could remain under mild pressure due to higher feedstock costs.
Reliance Jio’s telecom operations are likely to post another quarter of stable growth, with higher data usage and new subscriber additions. Analysts expect modest improvement in average revenue per user (ARPU), helped by premium plan adoption. The retail business is also expected to contribute positively, though consumer spending in some categories remains cautious. Store expansion, festive-season demand, and growing digital commerce are likely to offset any near-term moderation in discretionary spending.
On the energy side, investors will closely watch updates on Reliance’s new energy investments in solar, green hydrogen, and battery storage. Progress on these projects, particularly in Jamnagar, will be key to gauging how soon these ventures could begin contributing meaningfully to earnings.
Among the key numbers to watch are capital expenditure and free cash flow, as Reliance continues to invest heavily across businesses. While leverage remains under control, rising interest costs and depreciation could slightly weigh on net profit margins. Analysts also expect some impact from rupee volatility — a weaker currency supports export realizations but raises import-linked costs.
Risks for the quarter include soft petrochemical spreads, slower consumer demand in retail, and possible margin pressure from higher raw material prices. Moreover, the company’s first-quarter results included one-time gains from stake sales, so year-on-year comparisons may appear muted on a headline basis.
Overall, the second quarter is expected to reflect broad-based strength and steady growth across Reliance’s core businesses. The oil-to-chemicals segment should anchor earnings, while Jio and retail provide stability. Management guidance on telecom pricing, the planned Jio IPO, and progress in green energy will shape market sentiment after the results.
If the company delivers above-consensus earnings with improved cash generation and a clear strategic outlook, analysts believe the stock could regain positive momentum after recent consolidation. However, any soft commentary on retail demand or energy margins could limit immediate upside.
