CHENNAI: The southwest monsoon, responsible for delivering around 76 percent of India’s annual rainfall, plays a decisive role in the country's agriculture and economy. Its quantum, timing, and geographic distribution directly affect kharif and rabi crop production, food prices, inflation, and overall consumption patterns. Despite expanded irrigation coverage, nearly 40 percent of India’s farmland remains rain-fed.
Over the past decade, rainfall deviations ranging from -14 percent to +10 percent have significantly influenced sowing, yields, and market prices. Erratic rainfall contributes to inflationary pressures, given that food accounts for 47 percent of the Consumer Price Index and makes up 47 percent and 40 percent of rural and urban household spending, respectively. Here is a Crisil analysis of the imminent risks posed by an erratic monsoon:
Monsoon Progress in 2025
This year, the southwest monsoon arrived early, on May 24, enabling farmers to advance sowing of paddy, maize, cotton, pulses, and key horticultural crops such as onions, tomatoes, okra, and bananas. By June 29, the monsoon had covered the entire country a day ahead of schedule. As of September 2, cumulative rainfall stood approximately 7 percent above the long-term average, with Jharkhand, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Telangana recording above-normal rainfall.
Punjab faces heavy crop losses
Punjab received 74 percent above-normal rainfall in August, leading to the flooding of about 70,000 hectares out of its 4.24 million hectares of arable land. Paddy, sugarcane, and cotton fields were extensively submerged across several districts. Key risks of such a flood include:
Paddy (tillering stage): Waterlogging may cause yellowing leaves, stunted growth, and yield loss of 5–10 percent.
Sugarcane: Prolonged submergence increases the risk of red rot, reducing cane and sugar yields by 5–10 percent and impacting juice quality.
Cotton (squaring stage): Flower drop and pink bollworm infestations may cause 15–20 percent yield reduction and affect fiber quality.
Horticultural crops also suffered significant damage. Early cauliflower yields in Amritsar, Ludhiana, Moga, Kapurthala, Gurdaspur, and Pathankot districts are expected to decline by 10–15 percent. Tomato transplanting was delayed, and guava and pear orchards exhibited moderate vulnerability to fungal diseases and pest attacks, threatening yield and quality.
Haryana faces spillover effects
Border districts of Sirsa, Fatehabad, and Jind reported crop stress due to proximity to flood-affected Punjab. Paddy fields show premature flowering and bolting, indicating lower output. Tomato crops are moderately affected, and August carrot sowing has been delayed by waterlogged conditions.
Localised impact in Uttar Pradesh
Along the Yamuna, Ganga, and tributary banks, paddy in Lakhimpur, Gonda, Bahraich, and Prayagraj faced some submergence, though damage remained limited. Cucurbits in Saharanpur and Muzaffarnagar, and chili in Ghazipur, Varanasi, and Mirzapur sustained losses. In Bundelkhand, early monsoon rains restricted groundnut and soybean sowing, while green gram and black gram suffered severe damage.
Rajasthan sees widespread losses
Excessive rainfall damaged bajra, jowar, soybean, groundnut, green gram, and black gram across Ajmer, Tonk, Kota, Bundi, Jaipur, and Dausa districts.
Bajra (flowering stage): Lodging due to rain and high winds may reduce production.
Jowar, soybean, groundnut: Submergence-induced stem rot and stunted growth are leading to reduced output.
Pulses: Flower drop and poor pod setting are causing significant yield losses.
Meanwhile, maize (cob formation), paddy (tillering), and cotton (vegetative growth) remained mostly unaffected. However, in Sikar, persistent rains until mid-September could damage onion bulb formation due to waterlogging.
Mixed Impact in Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, and Telangana
Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka experienced localised flooding causing limited crop stress. Paddy, maize, and cotton remained mostly unaffected, but pulses (black and green gram) showed yield reductions due to flower drop.
Disease outbreaks affected vegetable crops in Karnataka: tomato blight and leaf spot, gourds impacted by powdery mildew, and onion rot were reported. Maharashtra farmers faced similar onion-related issues. Telangana, however, suffered severe flooding, resulting in widespread submergence. Cotton (flowering stage) is expected to yield less, while paddy and maize remained largely unaffected.
Why September is a pivotal month
The India Meteorological Department projects above-normal rainfall across northern and central India in September, coinciding with critical growth stages for paddy, cotton, soybean, maize, and onion. This month will be crucial for determining crop health, yields, and prices.
Any further production losses could amplify supply-side pressures, escalate food inflation risks, and affect overall consumption and price stability.