India will have to wait for longer to achieve the $4 trillion target. Earlier, the government had estimated that the target will be achieved by the end of the current financial year. However, the latest GDP estimates show that the nominal GDP of the country has declined from the Rs 357 lakh crore in the old series to Rs 345.5 lakh crore in the new series. At an average exchange rate of Rs 87, India’s GDP in dollar terms would fall short of $4 trillion.
“Based on current projections, India is expected to cross the $4 trillion-mark comfortably in 2026-27, although relative global rankings will depend on external factors,” chief economic advisor V Anantha Nageswaran told media here on Friday.
However, he said that India is firmly on course to become one of the world’s largest economies. “The exact timing of becoming the third or fourth largest will depend not only on domestic growth but also on exchange rate movements and the performance of other economies,” he said.
As per IMF estimates, the Indian economy was supposed to cross the $4 trillion-mark in FY26 and reach around $4.96 trillion in FY28. By FY29, India was projected to hit $5.46 trillion, and surpass $6 trillion by 2030. India was also supposed to become the 4th largest economy in the current financial year surpassing Japan. But with the new series and revised nominal GDP numbers, India is now unlikely to achieve this target as well.
As per data released by MoSPI on Friday, Nominal GDP or GDP at current prices is estimated to attain a level of Rs 345.47 lakh crore in the year 2025-26, against Rs 318.07 lakh crore in 2024-25, showing a growth rate of 8.6%.