MUMBAI: Gold and silver exchange traded funds (ETFs) rebounded sharply on Friday, recovering the deep cuts yesterday. Some of these ETFs rallied up to 30% when some like the Tata silver ETF surged 17% after it tanked 24% yesterday. But ETFs are still away from their 52-week highs hit on Wednesday.
The recovery was primarily due to the new records—while gold touched $4,970/oz (Rs 1,59,200/10 grams) on the CME earlier in the day, the white metal roared to sniff at $100/oz, and peaked early day trade at $99.22 or Rs 3,44,00/kg.
The rally in the global market is surprising as this came in spite of that thaw in the global geopolitical turmoil after Donal Trump back down from his bid to forcefully annex Greenland yesterday. This is also ignoring the fact that a resolution to the Ukraine war looks more realistic than even with the first-ever trilateral meeting between the warring nations and the US are scheduled for Friday in the UAE.
Both the metals are on course to hit the $5,000 and $100/oz mark anytime from now having already rallied more than 30% and 37% respectively.
In the domestic market, gold February futures rallied to command Rs 157,332/10 grams, up Rs 991 or 0.63% in early trade, and March silver was fetched Rs 3,33,100/kg or Rs 5,811 or 0 1.78% over Thursday’s closing price.
Jefferies has predicted gold prices at to scale to $6,600 per ounce this year, UBS has its target at $5,400; JP Morgan at $5,050; and BofA and ANZ at $5,000 each. But their early 20226 targets have already been met in the first three weeks of the year.
No known global brokerages have given a target for silver yet, as the price rally is driven by supply shortages and industrial demand from solar panels industry. The white metal had more than trebled in 2025 having began the year around $20/oz and ending the year at over $83 while the yellow metal had given 81% return in the year on the back of a 24% rally in 2024 and another 22% in 2023.
Tata silver ETF, which had crashed up to 24% yesterday, hitting a low of Rs 25.56 apiece, rebounded sharply today, rising more than 17% to hit the day’s high at Rs 33. This marks a 29% jump from the low hit by the ETF earlier yesterday.
Groww gold ETF is currently the top gainer among all the gold ETFs, jumpi9ng 7% to trade at Rs 155.97 today.
The sharp surge in gold and silver ETFs is a clear reflection of how aggressively investors are repositioning toward safe-haven assets amid heightened global uncertainty.
On yesterday's crash, Prasenjit Paul, equity research analyst at Paul Asset & Fund Manager at 129 Wealth Fund, said what unsettles investors on days like yesterday is not the fall in gold or silver, but the illusion of stability that ETFs create.
“Precious metals are volatile assets, ETFs make them feel tradable like stocks, encouraging investors to react to daily price moves. The real risk is owning them without clarity on allocation or purpose or without a proper entry-exit plan,” he said.
Precious metals had sharp volatility in late December 2025 and early January 2026. Despite price swings, the fundamentals of these metals are compelling, driven by near-record industrial demand from solar panels, electric vehicles and AI infrastructure, said Tanvi Kanchan, associate director at Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers.
“Given the current geopolitical landscape—from ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine to US-China tensions and uncertainty around trade policies under the Trump administration—precious metals maintain their relevance as portfolio hedges. However, after such explosive gains in 2025, timing a single-entry point is treacherous,” he said.
Motilal Oswal believes that gold looks more favourable now, after silver's massive rally. "Silver has delivered sharp outperformance in a short span, and with the gold–silver ratio now near lower levels, the near-term risk-reward is turning more favourable for gold.
"While we remain positive on both metals and silver continues to have long-term upside backed by industrial demand and tight physical market conditions, the recent rally has also increased near-term volatility," Navneet Damani, head of commodities research and Manav Modi, commodities analyst, Motilal Oswal Financial Services, said in a note Friday.