Few people have been through the wringer like Karnataka’s former chief minister B S Yeddyurappa. After almost a lifetime in the political wilderness, he brought his Bharatiya Janata Party to power in 2008, albeit with a razor-thin margin. But he followed that up with an impressive 19 of the 28 Lok Sabha seats in the 2009 elections to Parliament. That was just the beginning, however. In local elections, both municipal and panchayat, he took his party to unprecedented heights, winning a majority in both. It was the first time that the lotus on saffron had fluttered triumphally from virtually every corner of the State. At that point it seemed that Bookanakere Siddalingappa Yeddyurappa had the Midas touch with voters.
For the BJP too it was a moment of vindication. After decades of defeat and obscurity it had finally broken through in the south, and done so at great depth in one State, suggesting that it may become a permanent ruling party in Karnataka, much as seems to be the case in Gujarat. There was the feeling that this was the beginning of greater things to come, a truly all-India party.
All that now seems like a distant fever dream, with Yeddyurappa forced to step down from office on corruption charges, being arrested and then, finally, after his release on bail learning that he could not become CM again. He left the BJP on December 10 to set up his own regional party after many futile efforts to exercise a sort of casting vote on the shape and direction of the State government. His departure has not only left a gaping hole in the party’s State unit, it also threatens to tear the government apart as factions supporting and opposing him start to move into battle array. It is something of an irony that a party that stresses its cadre base should be so beholden to a single man, but Yeddyurappa is without doubt the architect of the BJP’s fortunes in Karnataka, much like Narendra Modi in Gujarat. What he does now as head of the fledgling Karnataka Janata Party is of great interest to everyone in the State, as success or failure will have consequences for the fortunes of all the parties in the coming election, due by the middle of next year.
The one thing about Yeddyurappa no one can deny is his ability to get out the vote in every election his party won after 2008, a record that earned the respect of his strongest critics. This time, however, he will be without two key resources, the BJP cadre and the virtually unlimited funding that he commanded from the billionaire Reddy brothers of Bellary district. The maverick miners are either in jail or political disgrace, and their relationship with the former chief minister is cold at best. So he will have to find some other generous patron. It is here that his problems begin. As head of the State BJP and government he represented a line of thinking and a route to places of real power, which is usually what motivates rich patrons. They are happy to give their support to someone they see as like-minded and hope for payback in a more prosperous time. As chief minister he was in a position to do all that and more, both in Bangalore and in Delhi.
Now, however, Yeddyurappa is on his own, launching an outfit whose prospects are unknown, but hardly promising even in Karnataka.
As for Delhi, he has burnt all existing bridges and unless KJP does really well in the election there is no chance of influence in the near future. Even a compulsive gambler will think twice before betting on such a venture.
It is unlikely that Yeddyurappa will win the election, but he could do serious damage to his mother party. Not only will the BJP be going to battle without their number one vote catcher, there is no one in the second line leadership with the experience or the credentials. Moreover, Yeddyurappa will be itching to teach his old party a lesson. For a party enveloped by the odour of corruption and divided from the inside, this is an additional burden to carry. The election is still several months away, and a great deal can happen in that time but there is no doubt that the BJP has its task cut out. Despite obvious weaknesses Yeddyurappa remains a formidable adversary, especially in southern Karnataka, also a BJP stronghold.
His support in the Lingayat community remains strong, although no one can say if they will back him in the election. Doubt and division could spell doom for the BJP’s prospects because it is from the south that it hopes to pick up the maximum seats.
For the Congress and HD Kumaraswamy’s opportunist Janata Dal (Secular) it is probably the kiss of life.
Given the discord and bitterness among the saffron brotherhood they have every hope of doing better than the last time. They must be praying that Yeddyurappa will at the very least wreck the BJP’s campaign. If he does that, and picks up a few seats in the process, he becomes a player again in the world’s oldest profession.
He may see it as a reassertion of his value even if the State touches a new nadir in the world of values.