BENGALURU: The lives of people in six mega cities, including Bengaluru, will be at risk if certain restrictions are lifted before the test positivity rate (TPR) drops below 5% – in line with World Health Organisation guidelines – according to an analysis by Jeevan Raksha, an initiative of management consultancy Proxima. Except Ahmedabad, other mega cities such as New Delhi, Bengaluru, Chennai and Mumbai have a high TPR, and trying to reopen schools, colleges, cinema halls, etc, will risk the lives and livelihoods of people, the analysis found.
Bengaluru’s gross TPR is at 11.7%, despite that, the government has allowed many relaxations in economic activities. This is not in line with WHO’s advisory that the TPR be 5% or lower for 14 days before certain activities are allowed to resume. A high positivity rate indicates that the government is only testing the sickest people who seek medical attention, and is not casting a wide enough net to know how the virus is spreading within communities, the analysis said.
“The recent drop in average daily positive cases in Bengaluru is a good sign, but sustaining it is crucial. The recent surge in Delhi is a clear message to all mega cities that ad hoc relaxation along with poor qualitative and quantitative testing will boomerang, sooner or later. The lives of 1.2 crore people cannot be put at risk by aggressively relaxing restrictions. Ahmedabad too had a high TPR at one point but the administration systematically worked to bring it down to below 5%, which makes it eligible for the lifting of restrictions to a greater extent. Similarly, Bengaluru needs to first bring down the TPR to below 5% and then lift restrictions, especially for schools and colleges,” said Sanjeev Mysore, Jeevan Raksha project convenor.
The rise in cases will see a corresponding increase in hospitalisation, putting pressure on already strained financial resources. “People need to recognise that if a family member – especially one with comorbidities – requires hospitalisation, chances of survival drop. The hospital cost will be around Rs 5-10 lakh, which 90% of people cannot afford. Also, they do not have insurance,” said Sanjeev.
However, other experts said that due to economic implications, continuing restrictions in a country like India may not be possible. “To reach 5% TPR, 60-70% of the population should be infected or exposed to the virus at some level, to achieve herd immunity. This is more easily possible in cities and countries with smaller populations, unlike Bengaluru and India. Continuing with restrictions is not practically possible now,” said Dr Sheetal Chauraisa, consultant of pulmonary medicine at Manipal Hospitals.
She said that distancing, and early identification, isolation and treatment, is the way to go. “Cases are steadily declining and hospital beds are emptying. Many Covid patients are asymptomatic even if they test positive. It appears that we are slowly reaching a peak, unless we see a second wave owing to factors such as inter-state migration,” Dr Sheetal added.