BENGALURU: Despite Covid cases coming down in Karnataka and even in Bengaluru, the number of deaths being recorded remains a worry. Karnataka's seven-day death rate remains well over 400 a day, while Bengaluru has been worryingly recording over 250 deaths daily.
In fact, the city's case fatality rate (CFR) has seen a sharp rise in the past six days. According to the Bruhat Bengaluru Mahanagara Palike (BBMP) war-room data, the city's CFR, which was 0.50% between April 5-11, increased to 1.16% between May 3-9 and has now shot up to 4.82% between May 24-30.
As many as 1833 deaths were reported in the city during the period. This is in contrast to the 1793 deaths reported from May 17-23 and 1292 deaths recorded between May 10-16. Back in early April, from April 5-11, the number of deaths was only 188.
Experts are attributing this rise to the gap that is usually seen between the spike in positive cases and a spike in deaths.
"From around April second week, we were seeing a high number of cases and the count spiked during the second week of May after which they began to come down. During this period that saw positive cases rise, we were seeing patients being admitted with severe Covid and many of them, unfortunately, have not recovered. These deaths will be reflecting in the data now and hence the CFR continues to show an increase. However, what we now need to observe is the next 2-4 weeks, when the fatality numbers should also fall after the reduction in positive cases," said Dr Anoop Amarnath, Head, Scientific Board and Chairman-Geriatric Medicine, Manipal Hospital and a member of the state's Critical Care Support Team (CCST).
Dr C Nagraj, a member of the Covid-19 state-level committee and Director of the Rajiv Gandhi Institute of Chest Diseases, said, "Earlier the admitted patients would recover in 3-5 days. However, some of the patients now are taking more than 10-15 days to recover and some are not making it. On a positive note, we have seen a reduction in the number of cases and a few of our oxygen and ICU beds at the hospitals are also vacant which is a good sign. With this progress, we are hoping to see a better scenario unfolding in the next 10-14 days where the number of deaths and CFR will have come down."
Dr Amarnath also emphasised that once the second wave subsides, a study into the variants that fuelled the wave will be needed. "We are seeing a higher number of positive cases caused by the B.1.617 strain. We further need to study the number of patients who lost their lives to it. If such a study is carried out, then we can find ways to address the cause of deaths."
The sharp rise of CFR in Bengaluru:
April 5-11 - 0.50%
April 12-18- 0.54%
April 19-25- 0.60%
April 26- May 2- 0.54%
May 3-9- 1.16%
May 10-16- 1.34%
May 17-23- 2.95%
May 24-30 - 4.82%