BENGALURU: A 30-day analysis (September 11-October 13) of Covid-19 projection shows that Karnataka will add 24,869 cases and 228 deaths during the period. While the numbers do not seem to be that high, compared to the peak period, the analysis states that the focus now needs to be on bringing down the active cases to below 10,000 before October-end.
The analysis by Jeevan Raksha shows the number of positive cases on September 11 to be 29,60,131 and it is projected to increase to 29,85,000 by October 13, while deaths could rise from 37,472 to 37,700 during the same period. The state’s active cases have dropped significantly. On June 13, the active cases were 1,80,835. By July 13, there was a huge dip to 34,234 cases, while on August 13, there were 22,703 active cases and on September 13, it came down to 16,341 active cases. However, the count should come to below 10,000, the analysis says.
Dr Manohar K N, Consultant-Internal Medicine at Manipal Hospitals, Old Airport Road, says that with the rising curve of vaccination in the country, the third wave is likely to be smaller and flatter than the first wave. “The wave might be so slow and low that its impact may not practically not felt. Cases are likely to remain concentrated in zones of poor seropositivity and low vaccination. When the rise in the number of cases is slow, hospital beds remain available, health infrastructure is not overburdened, so there is little hue and cry. But the government should remain cautious about preventing big congregations and large gatherings.”
Dr Anoop Amarnath, member of the state’s Critical Care Support Team (CCST) pointed out that the focus should be on keeping a track on epidemiological masses by keeping down the R-naught number below 1 and lower case positivity and fatality rate, to keep the numbers low. “Right now, the TPR and CFR show low numbers and even during the e-rounds of districts, we are noticing low numbers, which means the wave has tapered down. Next, the genomic study of the new strains and emerging ones needs to be checked to control the infections,” he pointed out.
With the third wave predicted to set in during October or November, experts point out that it is important to bring down the active cases. If the active case load is high, then newer addition of cases can still be managed. “Six states in India have more than 10,000 active cases, which include Kerala, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Mizoram, Tamil Nadu.
The September month is crucial to bring down active cases, as, in October, many festivals like Dasara, Deepavali will come up. The government should take stringent measures and keep the case load low. The key should be carrying out both containment and clinical management at the optimum. Meanwhile, under-reporting of cases too should be looked into.” said Sanjeev Mysore, Convener of Jeevan Raksha.