BENGALURU: In the backdrop of soaring Covid-19 cases in China and other countries, Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai has sought a projection model of case numbers for the next few months.
Sources from the health department said that scientists at the Indian Statistical Institute (ISI) and Indian Institute of Science (IISc), who have been tasked with this job, have expressed concern as there is not enough scientific data from China, regarding case numbers, positivity rate and others.
Dr M K Sudarshan, Chairman of the Covid-19 Technical Advisory Committee (TAC) confirmed that the state government, especially the chief minister, is keen on getting a projection model. “Ever since the pandemic broke, we have been closely working with scientists and mathematicians from the IISc and the statistical institution which give us the projection for the next weeks.
These experts come out with projections based on various parameters like the number of positive cases, positivity rate, Covid-variant that is driving the surge, vaccination status, and other inputs. As there is a surge in cases abroad, especially in China, we have asked experts for a projection for the next weeks,” Dr Sudarshan said.
Experts working on the projection have expressed concern that China has stopped publishing its Covid data after it lifted the zero-Covid policy that led to a sudden spike in Covid cases, a source from the health department said.
Dr Sudarshan said the experts have been directed to come up with projections with whatever data is available in the public domain like media reports and parallel sources.
“The output of any projection will directly rely on the inputs we give to arrive at it. As Chinese data is not available, we have asked experts to prepare the model with caveats with available data and come up with the projections on the number of positive cases, hospitalisation etc for the next few weeks,” Dr Sudashan said.
He added that this model, which is expected in a week, will help maintain the health infrastructure accordingly.