BENGALURU: While some virologists claim that Covid-19 has reached endemic stage, with an increase in cases in some countries and even some states in India, the World Health Organisation recently clarified that Covid-19 is far from becoming an endemic disease, and could still trigger large epidemics around the globe. Experts from the state agree, and say endemic does not mean “it’s over, it’s mild or not a problem” .
WHO Health Emergencies Programme Director Michael Ryan, after a recent emergency meeting, said it was wrong to think that if Covid-19 becomes endemic, it will mean the end of the problem. Dr Shahid Jameel, renowned virologist and visiting professor at Ashoka University, told TNIE, “Words like ‘herd immunity’ and ‘endemic’ have entered casual conversation over the past two years. To many, they represent a beacon that will signal the end of Covid. The concept of herd immunity comes from our experience with other (mainly childhood) vaccines, wherein the vaccinated majority protects the vulnerable minority. However, this theory would work if SARS-CoV-2 infected people only once, or those vaccinated gain immunity to infection. Since we know this is not the case, it is difficult to say when the virus will become endemic.”
Meanwhile, experts from the Technical Advisory Committee (TAC) for Covid-19, formed by the state government, say this is the time to up surveillance and also increase testing. A renowned doctor and TAC member said, “We should now expect numbers to go up in Karnataka too. But cases going up in Delhi cannot be called the onset of the fourth wave. We will probably see a majority of reinfections happening even if one is infected or vaccinated, but we need to watch out for any new variant like Delta or Omicron, which can change the way the pandemic will behave in the state,” he said. Though experts say that in the past, pandemics have ended becoming endemic and seasonal influenza is a good guide, they claim it is important to understand that vaccines provide protection from severe disease and death, but wane out, so it is important to take booster doses.
“They reduce infections and virus spread, and protect the vulnerable from severe illness,” said Dr Jameel. He adds that pandemics are not just biological or medical events, but also social, economic and political ones. “There is a need to balance the two and it is time to move on with life, but tread with caution,” he says.