BENGALURU: Researchers point out that Bengaluru will get warmer by 2038 if the same pace of development and shrinking of habitat green spaces continues.
The study- Environmental Consequences in the Neighbourhood of Rapid Unplanned Urbanisation in Bangalore City- published in Lidsen Publishing Inc on December 1, assessed the impact of urbanization in Bengaluru.
The study team involved researchers from the Indian Institute of Science (IISc)- Bengaluru, Indian Institute of Technology, Kharagpur, and Chanakya University. Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) algorithms tools aided in assessing the ecological status in the urban environment and in revealing the complex patterns.
The research document showed a 51.86% increase in the built-up area and a 26.28% decrease in the green cover.
Rapid unplanned urbanization after globalization and the opening up of the markets in Bengaluru city has witnessed erosion in the natural surface (water bodies and green cover) in the neighborhood, which has been impacting the health of the environment and people.
Computation of fragmentation indices showed a decline of the native green cover by 177.2 sq km in the southern part of Bengaluru district.
The analyses revealed a further possible increase in built-up to 1536.08 sq km, a decrease in green cover by 14.32 sq km by 2038, and the disappearance of water bodies. It highlighted the need to mitigate the adverse impacts of land use changes through planned urbanization considering the environment and livelihood of local communities.
“The decline of heat sinks such as water bodies and green cover would contribute to an increase in the land surface temperature, which would affect the microclimate of Bengaluru, highlighting the need to sustain ecosystem services to support the livelihood of local communities by 2038. Understanding the ecological significance of diverse habitat characteristics of the urban region and the prediction of likely changes in a high degree of spatial heterogeneity would assist the decision-makers in framing appropriate policies,” the study said.
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The study also noted that as agricultural lands, fallow lands, and open spaces were converted into urban spaces, the area under non-vegetation saw an increase from 15.73% to 67.3% from 1973 to 2022.
Land use analysis data also showed that the built-up area drastically expanded in the mid-2000s with the formation of Bruhat Bengaluru Mahanagara Palike including rural landscapes which led to the conversion of agricultural land to paved areas.
The peri-urban areas are becoming dense urban clusters with poor infrastructure and devoid of connectivity. The area under open spaces declined due to the conversion of open spaces into paved areas and newly formed layouts.