CHENNAI: Saying goodbye to hot and humid conditions, people of north Tamil Nadu, including Chennai, may have to brace up for some stand-and-deliver rains, come April 30. A two-day ‘Red Alert’ has been sounded for the Tamil Nadu government by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) on Thursday as powerful cyclonic storm ‘Fani’ is forming and likely to head toward north Tamil Nadu.
It would be a rare storm considering the fact that this would be the only second cyclonic storm in the last 50 years to have moved towards Tamil Nadu in April. The last one was in 1966. If this storm unleashes its full potential coming close to the coast, it can solve the ongoing water crisis, at least to some extent, of parched northern districts reeling under severe drought like conditions.
For two days - April 30 and May 1 - extreme rainfall spells, ranging between 10 cm to over 20 cm, can occur.
IMD’s red alert warning meant Tamil Nadu government should ‘take action’ initiating precautionary measures to minimise the devastating affects of the storm in vulnerable areas and on fragile coastal communities.
An IMD intraday bulletin confirmed the formation of a well-marked low pressure area over East Equatorial Indian Ocean and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal. It is likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm by Saturday.
No fishing from Friday
With IMD indicating intensification of wind speed off Tamil Coast from Friday, the Fisheries department has issued advisory to fishermen in all coastal districts not to venture into sea
Ray of hope
"The storm is likely to move northwestwards along and off east coast of Sri Lanka near north Tamil Nadu coast on April 30," IMD said.
While doing so, the cyclonic storm can clock squally wind speeds reaching 90-100 kmph gusting to 115 kmph off Tamil Nadu and Pondicherry coasts from April 29.
IMD said strong wind speed reaching 30-40 kmph, gusting to 50 kmph, are likely to commence along and off Tamil Nadu and Pondicherry coast, Comorin area and Gulf of Mannar from April 28 morning before gradually intensifying.
The sea condition is likely to get very rough and fishermen have been warned against venturing into the sea on April 29 and 30.
Weather blogger Pradeep John said the quantum of rainfall would depend on how close the storm comes to the coast. Though the point of landfall is still not clear, two prominent numerical models - Global Forest System (GFS) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) - suggest the cyclone would cross north Tamil Nadu.
Pradeep said, "The exact path of the cyclone can't be spelt out now since there are four more days to go. As of now, conditions are favourable for the cyclone to come close to north Tamil Nadu coast and bring bountiful rains. In another two days, we can surely say which districts are going to get heavy to heavy rains."
‘No shallow fishing’
The Tamil Nadu Fisheries department has issued advisory to fishermen in all coastal districts not to venture into sea from Friday.
Fisheries commissioner GS Sameeran told Express that since the annual 61-day fishing ban is currently in force in the East Coast, no mechanised boat is out in the sea.
A standard protocol of disaster management has been kicked-off, an official said.
Rainfall intensity Colour codes
Yellow Heavy rain - 64.5 - 115.5 mm (7 - 11 cm)
Orange Very heavy rain 115.6- 204.4 mm (12 - 20 cm)
Red Extremely heavy rain >204.4 mm (21 cm or more)