COVID-19 positivity rate in Chennai suggests city may be on the right track

In the seven days preceding the release of the intense lockdown, from June 29 to July 5, the city tested an average of 10,060 samples a day.
Experts have attributed this downward curve to the recent intense lockdown in Chennai for more than two weeks. (Photo | Ashwin Prasath, EPS)
Experts have attributed this downward curve to the recent intense lockdown in Chennai for more than two weeks. (Photo | Ashwin Prasath, EPS)

CHENNAI: Although Chennai's average testing in the week following the release of the 'intense' lockdown has reduced by around 1000, the COVID-19 positivity rate in the city shows it may be on the right track, say experts.

In the seven days preceding the release of the intense lockdown, from June 29 to July 5, the city tested an average of 10,060 samples a day.

After the lockdown was lifted, from July 6 to 12, testing averaged 9,072.

However, the positivity rate for the week following the release of the intense lockdown was found to be much lower than during the week preceding it. From June 29 to July 5, the positivity rate was at an average of 20.7 % whereas between July 6 to 12, it was at 14.1%. 

The test positivity rate is the percentage of samples that are positive out of the total number of samples tested.

During the above two periods, the positivity rate fell by around 32% whereas the reduction in absolute numbers of COVID-19 positive cases was at around 38%.

"In this case, when you take into consideration the absolute numbers and the positivity rate, both are reducing proportionally which indicates that the testing is focused," says former director of public health P Kulandaisamy.

In terms of absolute numbers, the city had registered an average of 2,058 positive cases every day between June 29 to July 5. This has come down to an average of 1283 cases between July 6 to 12.

Virologist T Jacob John said that cases in Chennai have peaked and the numbers are coming down.

"However, it's too early to celebrate or relax in terms of intensity of containment measures. The (cumulative) numbers in the post-peak period will be higher because it will occur over a longer period of time," he said.

When contacted, a senior official of Chennai Corporation said that Chennai is still ahead as far as testing is concerned, according to ICMR testing norms.

"The testing numbers will automatically increase as per caseload and positivity," he said.

"As labs are working overtime, there's this issue of backlog in clearance and we are associating with private labs as well," he added.

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