Northeast monsoon sets in Tamil Nadu on a weak note, normal rainfall on the cards

After a week’s delay, the Northeast monsoon has set in over Tamil Nadu, and in most likelihood, it would be normal.
Representational image. (File Photo | R Satish Babu, EPS)
Representational image. (File Photo | R Satish Babu, EPS)

CHENNAI: After a week’s delay, the Northeast monsoon has set in over Tamil Nadu, and in most likelihood, it would be normal. Southwest monsoon withdrew on Wednesday and simultaneously the Northeast monsoon commenced over extreme South peninsular India (Tamil Nadu and Kerala). 

Sudden showers lashed Chintadripet in
Chennai on Wednesday afternoon | p jawahar

However, the monsoon has set foot on a weak note with only a handful of weather stations recording rainfall. Melur in Madurai district received 6 cm of rainfall, the highest in State during the last 24 hours, ending at 8.30 am on Wednesday. 

S Balachandran, deputy director general, Regional Meteorological Centre told reporters that only light to moderate rainfall/thunderstorms are likely to occur at a few places over Southern Tamil Nadu and at isolated places over Northern TN this week. 

“Tirunelveli, Tenkasi, and Virudhunagar districts may receive heavy showers,” Balachandran said. As far as Chennai is concerned, the skies would be generally cloudy. “Maximum and minimum temperatures are likely to be around 30-degree Celsius and 25-degree Celsius respectively. Northeast monsoon is crucial for the State in terms of agriculture and drinking water security. The State receives an average of 44 cm rainfall between October and December.

The usual onset date of monsoon is October 20. Experts said the rainfall activity would gain pace in November with likelihood of at least two weather systems forming in Bay of Bengal. Jeevanprakash R Kulkarni, ex-scientist, Indian Institute of Tropical Metrology (IIT-M), Pune, said, “Currently, weak La Nina conditions are prevailing in the tropical Pacific Ocean and neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are prevailing over the Indian Ocean.

These global parameters, which are known to influence the climate variability, will neither have positive nor negative impact on the performance of Northeast monsoon. So, it should be a normal year.” During October 2019, IOD was strongly positive, which was favourable for good monsoon activity, but three low pressure systems that formed in quick succession modulated the monsoon circulation features and transported the moisture away from the region leading to large deficiency in rainfall during the first three weeks of November. 

However, good rainfall activity during the second half of October, last week of November and first week of December meant the overall performance was normal. “So we have to wait and watch how things unfold,” weather trackers said. South Asian Climate Outlook Forum and Climate Services User Forum, in September, had predicted a below normal rainfall.

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