Chennai may reach over 19,000 daily COVID cases by mid-May, shows epidemiologist's model
CHENNAI: Chennai may reach over 19,000 daily COVID-19 cases by mid-May at the current Rt value of 1.3, a model by an epidemiologist at the National Institute of Epidemiology, Indian Council of Medical Research, Chennai, showed.
The Rt value indicates the average number of people that one person with COVID-19 is expected to infect. The current Rt in Chennai is 1.3 -- that is one person is expected to infect 1.3 others.
The projections made by S Manikanda Nesan, Epidemiologist, National Institute of Epidemiology, ICMR based on an Rt of 1.3 suggested that by May 15, Chennai may report 19,141 COVID-19 cases daily.
"On 5 May the daily cases may be 9,652 and by 25 April 4,860 cases. Is it a scary tale ahead for Chennai?" asked Manikanda Nesan, sharing his projections on Twitter on Friday. He also said the health system cannot cope with the burden.
"This projection is based on current Rt. More vaccination will definitely bring down Rt and that's exactly what we all really wish for," Manikanda Nesan said.
On Friday, Chennai reported 3,842 cases and 37 deaths. There were 31,170 active cases in the city and beds in all COVID-19 treatment hospitals are fast filling.
Meanwhile, speaking to The New Indian Express, M Jagadeesan, the City Health Officer, said people should follow government guidelines. They should wear masks all the time and maintain social distancing, he said.
The corporation is using all available resources to monitor people on home quarantine. Also door-to-door surveillance is being done, said Jagadeesan.
He further added that people need not panic, but must come and get tested. If positive, they will be sent to institutions based on the severity of the disease. The corporation also has 12 screening centres for such people.
Meanwhile, on Friday the state reported 13,776 COVID-19 cases and 78 deaths, taking the tally to 10,51,487 and toll to 13,395.
The test positivity rate was 11 percent. Also, 44 percent of cases on Friday were from Chennai and its neighbouring districts. Chengalpattu reported 985 cases, while Kancheepuram and Tiruvallur had 395 and 807 respectively.
According to the media bulletin issued by the Directorate of Public Health, among the deceased, 12 didn't have comorbid conditions.