'Is it safe to travel?', 'Should we postpone the conference?', 'Will our exams be rescheduled?', 'Is it better to stock up on essentials early?'... The weather blogging community has been bombarded with all sorts of queries from anxious Chennai vaasis since early November.
The worrying nature of climate change, and accessibility to technology has led to a spurt of weather enthusiasts in recent years, encouraging them to fervently pursue weather forecast as a passion for many and as a career, for some.
Finding ways to keep their growing family of followers safe and informed, several junior, senior and veteran bloggers have dedicated their time and diligence to this cause that comes with great responsibility. With this community growing every year, Vaishali Vijaykumar speaks to five bloggers from Tamil Nadu about the onus and the obligation that comes with this commitment.
Working towards a weather-wise world
Srinivasan Venkatesh (@MasRainman)
In the ‘80s, when I used to walk to school on rainy days, I used to stop by tea shops to listen to the radio for weather forecasts. I was also inspired by veteran news anchor Varadarajan’s updates of storms on Doordarshan. These things drew me into pursuing forecasting as a hobby,” recalls Srinivasan Venkatesh.
He started avidly blogging in 2012-2013. He joined a popular weather blogging community, KEA, where seasoned bloggers helped him grow. By 2014, he started forecasting on his own. Last year, he started a YouTube channel Rainman Studio - MAS Rainman to help the farmers with monsoon predictions during the harvest season. “I have some school students in my WhatsApp group and I’m training them to become forecasters. It’s about building a weather-wise community,” he assures.
Venkatesh frequently communicates with bloggers from Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and Karnataka to keep himself updated with local forecasts. "Weather blogging is a rigorous activity from June to December. I wake up at 4 am, edit the video to be posted on social media platforms, read the day’s forecast, and take part in contests held for weather bloggers. After all this, I head to office. Forecasting demands your attention and energy every hour," he says.
The manual rain gauge and automatic weather station installed at his house aid in predictions. It’s been his dream to reach out to farmers and the general public who’re not on social media.“It would be nice to see more youngsters pursue a career in this field. All they need is guidance. I’d say read, analyse, predict and help the community,” he shares.
Forecast beyond borders
Varun Raghav (@RainTracker)
Varun Raghav grew up studying satellite images in newspapers. But his interest in weather blogging intensified during the 2015 Chennai floods and set up his Twitter page in 2018 during Kerala floods. The dearth of bloggers who study southwest monsoon pushed him to explore the area more. He posts forecasts of Kerala, coastal Karnataka and Tamil Nadu on Twitter and Facebook.
"To be a good forecaster, it is important to develop multidisciplinary skills and I learnt that from Pradeep John. One should know the basics of weather, how weather models work, data analytics and statistics, how the government works in climate-related issues, and more. Fortunately, we have an active community that shares instant updates on WhatsApp and social media," elaborates the UPSC aspirant.
Monsoons are of course the busiest for Varun. "We closely follow flash news and updates from Automatic Weather Stations. Prediction is a gamble. I recently pointed out that Kanniyakumari rains would reduce and it turned out to be right. Recently, I told someone it wouldn’t rain in Kochi the next evening but it rained. We're trolled if our prediction goes wrong but If I get it right then I feel content," he explains.
For amateurs, it’s important to get the basics right and carefully study the data, rainfall, previous year patterns and climatology of your locality, he points out. Varun intends to specialise in data science and invest in a rain gauge. “I like collecting statistics of Kerala weather and I’m one of the few bloggers who makes it available for the public. I think we can do better with career opportunities (in this field). Unlike the US that has private weather agencies, here there’s only IMD that’s reputed and has vacancies. For research purposes, it would be great if IMD makes more data available to the public as it would help with disaster management,” he suggests.
Practice makes him perfect
Jaswanth (@JW_Chennai)
In November 2017, Mylapore recorded 30 cm rainfall after 12 hours of rain. Upon reading a few weather blogs and posts, I was amused by how the cloudburst phenomena worked. I was thrilled and intrigued by the nature of our atmosphere. Then began the journey and every day has been an adventure,” enthuses Jaswanth.
The engineering student has learnt to strike a balance between his studies and passion. “This is my stressbuster. I spend all my time on weather forecasting, after my online classes. I ensure I read charts, articles and research papers every day. On my Twitter account, I’ve been sharing my views. All this wouldn’t be possible without the guidance of people like Pradeep John. He responds to my queries and helps me understand concepts,” he shares.
Four years into blogging, Jaswanth has an overall idea about how cyclones, thunderstorms and monsoon work. “Every monsoon is a new experience. No weather pattern repeats. So whether you’re an amateur or a seasoned blogger, forecasting is going to be challenging. The best thing about interacting with fellow bloggers is each one is an expert in some field. When they all bring their expertise to table, it’s informative to all of us and becomes a collaborative space to learn,” he notes.
Jaswanth believes that with practice comes perfection. “Meteorology is not an easy area to delve into. You need to know the inside-out of weather charts, wind patterns, climatology and more to do a fulfilling job. Every year, we have to do the groundwork, compare previous years' data and prepare ourselves. Tamil Nadu has a lot of potential with promising weather bloggers. The commendable work they’ve been doing says it all and I’m proud to be one among them,” he says.
Young and curious
Hrishi Jawahar (@jhrishi2)
Hrishi Jawahar’s fascination for forecasting dates back to his school days in 2010. What started as wishing for rains for the government to declare a holiday eventually kindled the curiosity in him to analyse what caused the rains in the first place. After rigorous homework, referring to journals and research papers, understanding weather charts, and studying historical events, he ventured into blogging almost a decade ago. “I did get a chance to pursue meteorology at Birmingham University but circumstances held me tight. I wouldn’t miss it if I get another chance,” shares Hrishi, who has a Masters degree in Advanced Mechanical Engineering and International MBA from the UK.
Most of Hrishi’s learnings have been from insightful discussions with weather bloggers. “Pradeep John (Tamil Nadu Weatherman), Selvan, GTS are few of the bloggers who have helped me understand the various weather patterns. K Ehsan Ahmed who owns the KEA weather blog has been the backbone of all bloggers. There has also been an increasing trend in the number of weather bloggers since the 2015 deluge,” he shares.
For Hrishi, not a single day goes by without checking the global weather charts. "The southwest and northeast monsoon periods are busy. I even got my own personal weather station, Davis Vantage Vue, from the US to check rainfall readings and understand the pattern. For instance, the 2017 NEM onset system gave almost 600 mm of rainfall in a span of seven days for Chennai. Unfortunately, I was in the UK during this event but I continued to track this system during my class hours," he details.
Research, practice and work is his his word of advice to budding bloggers.
Starting with a storm
Parthasarathy S (@PIW44)
Parthasarathy's journey with tracking weather began when cyclone Nilam crossed Chennai in 2012. "I've been interested in studying weather since school days but it was not until 2010 when I decided to pursue it religiously. Those days, there was no Internet or infrastructure. Around September 2011, I joined KEA weather blogging community and it’s been an insightful experience since then," he recollects.
By 2015, Parthasarathy started forecasting North East monsoons."These were long-range forecasts from October to December. They turned out to be successful. Only after 2017, I started posting forecasts on social media. So it's been a slow and stepwise growth for me. But I’m surprised to see my fellow young bloggers who're active and quick with grasping concepts.
The interpretation I do today, they're able to do at a young age. Accessibility to data and technological advancements play a vital role in that. A few years back, every 12 hours we would have forecast charts but now it’s available every hour. All information related to pressure, wind accumulation, precipitation accumulation are given," he elaborates.
"One needs to be careful with predictions. During the June to September period, I spend at least half a day preparing for the day’s forecast. During the northeast monsoon, it’s 24 hours to get a near-perfect forecast. If my prediction goes wrong, I even post an explanation the next day. This is an additional responsibility and gives me satisfaction," he says.
Tamil Nadu perhaps has the highest number of active weather enthusiasts in the country and followers too, he believes. "People request me to post updates in Tamil and that shows their interest. Since our monsoon is shorter and there’s less rainfall activity compared to other states, people are more excited here. January to March is relatively dull. Activities start from April, then southwest monsoon and finally our northeast monsoon," he says.
With a sudden rise in bloggers and forecast activities, Parthasarathy cautions, "Read as much as you can. People give predictions based on charts but that can create panic. Please don’t forecast without learning the fundamentals."